NYC & Cape Cod Travel Observations

I have just returned from a family vacation in Cape Cod which began with a brief, 3-day stay in New York City. We flew into NYC and then rented a car for the drive to the cape. Below I note a few observations from the trip. These are just trivia compared to the wonderful time we had in both locations. Chatham, our regular destination in Cape Cod, again proved to be a splendid escape. 

• My Lyft driver said as we were crossing the Queensboro Bridge, “the greatest city in the world without a doubt.” He is much better travelled/lived than me—born in Nigeria; lived in Dubai, Shanghai, LA, somewhere in Europe as well as several other worldly locales I don’t recall specifically. Who am I to argue? NYC is indeed world class. It’s ability to overcome so much poor and excessive governance is a tribute to its greatness.
• NYC is vibrantly crowded—in a very good way. This was refreshing to see as I feared the city might have lost this by an order of magnitude. 
• Outdoor dining is generally well placed and seemingly here to stay. The outdoor market near Times Square on Saturday was new to me and a treat to walk through.
• New condo high rises are incredible. These so-called "pencil towers" don't inspire me the way other skyscrapers do, but maybe I'm too caught up in how structurally unsound they appear, which is intended as a feature rather than a bug. Just to me they look like how a child might sketch a cityscape lazily drawing as many tall buildings as possible.
• Residence Inn Central Park (54th & Broadway) is recommended. Laundry options and convenient location along with great room and views—pics below.
• Office space use looks still near empty by my anecdotal evidence. These pictures were taken from my room. Of the many elaborate office floors pictured in the neighboring building, only one ever had any occupants other than cleaning crews--cleaning floors that didn't ever have office workers messing them up. The floor with the basketball games and other fun stuff was vacant during the day. Note that the machines were all on 24/7--this should probably count against this firm's ESG rating, LOL. 
  
  
  
  
  
• Where are the homeless? Michael Shellenberger has a point. Considerably less panhandling total than I encounter in the OKC area with 1/14th the population.
• Crime and safety never seemed an issue on this trip. While I was in relatively high-income places, the popular narrative from the right still seemed false. We walked about 8 miles per day in various areas: 
• Times Square (at night!)
• Greater Midtown area
• Central Park to the Upper West Side
• High Line/Chelsea Market to Little Italy/Chinatown
• I left my family shopping at Rockefeller Center to go pick up the rental car planning on them walking the half mile back by themselves without a second thought. I would have hesitated to do this in downtown OKC. Their journey was uneventful.
• Memories come serendipitously. On our first night we were caught in a downpour in Times Square. While some of us had rain jackets, we were ill prepared. We stopped into a CVS to buy a couple umbrellas. Still our shoes and socks were quite soaked. This was very much like Boston years ago. No one would plan to get caught in the rain like this, and it would undoubtedly be one of those wouldn't-do-that-again moments. Yet, how can we reconcile that with it also being a wouldn't-trade-that-away moment? We don't get to choose our moments, but we do get to choose how we feel about them and how we take them on. (NB: I still plan on making good on this from the prior post: "The imaginative story we concocted on the train-ride back will be the inspiration for a future post.")
• Masking is relatively high. ~20-25% of people still mask and those that do do it constantly—inside, outside, between bites. These are the people suffering long COVID. One young man walking down a busy, curvy street in Central Park choose to avoid passing our group in a tunnel under a bridge by walking down the middle of the street. He crossed between speeding cars, walked down the double-yellow line in the shadows of the tunnel holding his Macbook up high as cars whizzed by, and crossed back behind our trail. He seemed to stride with some pride in this moment of horribly bad risk analysis.
• Book stores are the last holdout on required masks (aside from public transportation where it actually isn’t enforced). Stores in both Greenwich Village, NY and Chatham, Cape Cod strictly adhered to the antiquated ritual.
• Cape Cod is resilient as well. Hard to tell a difference from my last trip in 2019.
• Mask use is lower here than NYC. Maybe 15% tops. Very few outside.
• Police are used for traffic directing around construction. This is something I noticed in Boston a few months back. In Cape Cod four or more police can be found just standing around pointing for cars to drive or wait as construction workers actually work. Definitely a union giveaway—great to see all the crimes have been solved in Massachusetts.
• People were quite friendly almost everywhere in both places. The northeastern USA's reputation of unfriendliness is again proven quite unwarranted. Distant and reserved, yes. Hostile or gruff, not so much.
• Rideshare the business model as experienced via Lyft seems strong and competitive. Uber was just a tad more expensive on each prospective trip but highly available as well.
• Prices are high but a competitive market helps. Cocktails were basically the same price at comparable bars to what I see back home. Food was more expensive but an order of magnitude better when considering availability times quality. As for prices, it is hard to know how much is inflation versus big market, if only I had a restaurant journal… oh wait, I do. 
• Let's begin by comparing Nom Wah Tea Parlor between my visit in June 2018 and current prices in June 2022. Recreating the order from the prior trip (beer, tea, 3x buns, 2x dumplings, roll, rice, and noodles) yields a total bill of about $69 pre tax & tip. My total bill with tax & tip in 2018 was $68.72. Assuming the tax rate is the same and I tipped the same rate, the total bill difference goes from $68.72 to about $89--about a 30% increase. In comparison NYC-area restaurant prices in general as measured by CPI over this time span are up about 18%. A similar order made at my local option, Mr. Hui, comes to about $93--more expensive and lower quality (sorry, Mr. Hui). My bet is Nom Wah got discovered between then and now, and its prices are reflecting as much. Hence, the 30% increase is a combination of general food inflation and something specific to that restaurant.*
• One more comparison: The Chatham Squire, which I always hit multiple times per trip. In June 2019 I was there with extended family. Our total bill was $202.05 for which we enjoyed (well, let's just say quite a few drinks) and cioppino, mussels and hummus. Recreating the order in June 2022 makes the total about $253--about a 25% increase.* 
• Pervasively merchants are directly passing along credit card fees in Cape Cod and to a lesser extent NYC. This has got to be an intermediate solution to a standard menu-price inflation problem. Seems slightly bullish for crypto while obviously creating a distortionary arbitrage for the cash-based consumers. 
  
  
  
• Employee scarcity didn't seem as bad in Cape Cod as NYC or back home, but the effects were still in evidence. Restricted hours of operation seemed the most obvious sign. Restaurants were otherwise packed. 

The trip was delightful as I could have easily enjoyed double the time in each location. Cape Cod is very relaxing especially the way we do it. If you feel rushed there, you're doing it wrong. Enjoy a few pictures.

*Take these comparisons with a grain of salt since you really cannot tease out anything from an N=1 sample. 

The Progression of Air Travel Security Theater

It is as if the powers that be are playing an ever-escalating game of what can we make them do next. 

When I was a kid it was just speech codes: don’t say “bomb” or “gun” or you might be detained and searched. Maybe not allowed to fly that day. 

After 9/11 it was: “let’s take away their liquids, move the entry barrier back and search them good and hard before entering, not allow anything sharp, and of course let’s profile them until they call foul and then let’s pick on the most obviously innocent to prove we don’t profile.”

“Now what?” I can hear them eagerly ask. Then the shoes came off. “And let’s make them basically get strip-searched (remotely) while holding up their hands in the ‘don’t shoot’ position.” 

And of course with COVID it is: “let’s make them wear masks . . . forever?” 

It will stop when we stop letting the most fearful and the most fanciful fears drive all policy decisions.

Related: The Great Antidote - Gary Leff on Airline Bailouts and Travel. Pay attention to where he describes American air firms as being basically extensions of the federal government. The technical term is fascism.

Crony Capitalism (Vacation Rental Edition)

My wife and daughter just returned from a delightful long weekend in Santa Fe, NM. The entire family will return soon to Saint Francis's fine city where, as Hermann Banks reminds us, strangers are kind and beauty is overflowing and the local government is captured by crony capitalists. In fairness to Banks he never has said as much about local government, but I would imagine he wouldn't dispute it. 

Case in point:

A friend of mine has a vacation home there that he purchased a few years ago for both personal use and as an investment. Part of the investment is renting it out as a short-term vacation rental.

About six months ago I booked his place for my family's trip this coming April. In October I received an urgent text message from the rental property service directing me to check my email. Doing so I saw a short message stating that my reservation was no longer available, they were searching for a substitute property, and would be back in touch soon. I somewhat shrugged it off as being a mistake since I knew the actual owner well. But before I had a chance to contact my friend I received another email regretfully informing me that my reservation was cancelled with no substitute.

I reached out to my friend still thinking this was just a clerical error in their system. While a clerical error had occurred, it had a deeper problem behind it. My friend was somewhat upset but a lot calmer about it than I would have been. In fact I was livid for him and ready to go to the barricades. Not because of my vacation plans being disrupted but because of why this was happening and the implications it had for him.

The short version is this: The property management company had failed to make sure that my friend was current in his short-term rental permit with the city of Santa Fe (and yes, this is enough to get me to the barricades--the fact that a city government makes property owners get permission to use their property . . . but wait, there's more). The failure here was pretty significant in that it had expired the prior December 31st. Shame on the management company for sure. 

Should be no problem, though. Just refile as this should be a formality at this point. My friend does so starting a few days before my cancellation email by calling the proper city office. Keep in mind that my friend lives in Tulsa, OK; so all of this is out of direct control for what it's worth. I'm not sure if being able to go down to city hall would have made things better for him. They probably wouldn't have been better for me if I were in his shoes due to the whole ready-to-storm-the-castle attitude I have in these matters. Nevertheless . . . the city official looks it up and says, "Uh-oh, I don't think we'll be able to do this." 

[I swear this is the short version] It seems there exists another, current, valid in-the-eyes-of-the-Duke-of-Santa-Fe short-term rental permit for a property located within 50 feet of my friend's. You see kids, in America Big Hotel has decided that short-term rentals are a threat to their business. They've convinced well-meaning homeowners that people renting out their property could be scary. Soooo, rather than compete they've helped create rules to stop the madness. 

But this no-longer-short story doesn't end with just a Bootleggers and Baptists tale of the hotel lobby working hard to stifle competition along with the help of residents who think they should be able to dictate what happens on other people’s property. We get some government failure and unintended consequences to boot. 

My friend was taken aback at the news he couldn't get a permit because one nearby already existed (a new rule) but was immediately relieved relaying to the official, "Who has a rental? I know all my neighbors, and none of them rent." Upon further inspection, the city official realized that there are two roads with the same name in Santa Fe. The other permit is for a property miles away from my friend's. He could get it after all. Just need to have the local inspector swing by the next day to validate it all. Phew, that was close . . . but wait, there's more . . . as you probably suspect knowing what came next for me. 

The inspector comes out to my friend's house. Presumably begins checking boxes. Sees that there is another property located within 50 feet holding a short-term rental permit by looking it up just like the prior city official did. So he promptly denies the permit and goes about his day. 

This triggers a very fast and unforgiving process in the several rental property agencies my friend uses for his listing. Because I'm sure so as to not fall afoul of city governments everywhere and their crony capitalist controllers, they act swiftly to cancel all of my friend's future rentals. Remember this is October right before a busy Thanksgiving and Christmas season and he depends on repeat business as well as referrals. Along with all of these would-be customers, it is now that I receive a cancellation via email. 

At this point my friend was already on top of getting this reversed--I would not say satisfactorily resolved. He cleared it up with the city and over a LONG weekend was square to lease his property. Then came damage control. Many apologetic messages later with many discounts offered and still a large number of permanent cancellations foregone, he had done all he could to salvage some of his 9+ months of bookings.

It is hard seeing the system work the way it is actually, ultimately intended. It is harder still being a victim of it.

Summer Rental

The Reopening - The View from Hawaii

Earlier this month my family and I spent a week in Maui. In case you haven't heard, it is really, really beautiful--a great vacation spot. Hot take, I know. Here are some observations:

• Two underappreciated qualities that give Hawaii its magical appeal are the remoteness in distance and time. You can go to lots of amazing islands in this world, but almost none are as physically remote as Hawaii. Related to this but not necessarily following except for the particular way our world is populated is the fact that it is very temporally remote. The rest of the world is asleep or done with their day when yours on the island is starting. This forces one to shrink their world down to a few mountains in the vast ocean abyss.
• The reopening from the perspective of Hawaii is perhaps unsurprisingly behind what I've otherwise experienced. Anecdotally this was supported by other travelers who came from places more locked down than Oklahoma such as New York and California. They too were surprised by the policy phase Hawaii was still in.
• Related to this was the part that both caused anxiety for me in preparing for the trip and frustration for me in navigating the travel. This is the Hawaiistan aspects whereby it was as if I were travelling to a third-world country. At the time when we were there (this policy was recently relaxed) the only vaccinations that were meaningful were those given on the island. The same shot from Pfizer, et al. given in another U.S. state gave no privilege--every entrant had to get the same COVID test done before arriving and not more than 72 hours before arrival. Testing in a pandemic is critical, but the various rules laid out for Hawaii, which I won't bother to fully go into here as others have covered this, and the way they were implemented had more to do with health theater and signaling than they did with science.
• This should probably not be a surprise given that the Maui mayor thought it helpful/necessary to beg airlines to bring fewer tourists to the island. I guess that's how they solve for the equilibria in banana republics.
• Speaking of banana republics and their policies, Hawaii generally and Maui specifically suffers from two self-imposed penalties--development restrictions and the Jones Act. 
• On development - I understand that there is a bootleggers (resorts, others in the tourist industry, and current homeowners/developers) and Baptists (current residents who in many cases are self-described natives and who don't want things to change) story going on. I'm not sure everyone close to this issue does understand that. I am sensitive to the good, bad, and sometimes ugly history of how Hawaii is now a U.S. state. Blanket restrictions on and impediments to development imposed by government are not the solution. They are economically harmful making Hawaii poorer than it would otherwise be, which of course harms the poor the most. They are also culturally destructive creating a hostile environment of us versus them as opposed to a constructive environment of negotiated compromise and agreement. Finally they are morally repugnant when they allow the politically powerful to violate property rights.
• On the Jones Act - this is "self-imposed" in that Hawaii is a U.S. state and this is a U.S. federal government policy. Hawaii itself is not responsible for it. However, why isn't the Hawaiian delegation to Washington and Hawaiians as a politically lobby effort not storming the Capitol on this one (figuratively speaking, of course)? 
• Enough griping. Hawaii is awesome. The people I encountered (Hawaiians and tourists alike) were delightful. Aloha is not just a slogan. It is a warm and wonderful way of life that is embraced and practiced everywhere you go. I felt welcomed and appreciated in Hawaii by virtually every person I had the pleasure of engaging with.

A few recommendations:

• Do some homework before travelling to decide how much of an activity vacation you want (there is plenty to do) and how much of a relaxation vacation you want (it is easy to not have enough as it takes time to drive, boat, walk to various destinations, everyone moves a bit slower than you might expect, and at every turn there is a siren call to spend more time).
• Because of the odd time zone Hawaii has been placed in (it "should" be a hour or two earlier there when compared to most places) and because of the typical jetlag for U.S. travelers, Hawaii wakes up early and you will too. So it follows that it turns in for the evening before you probably expect. Just chalk it up to following Ben Franklin's advice and hope that it adds some wisdom to your life.
• We stayed in Wailea on the southwestern shore. You can't probably go wrong between this area and the rival northwestern shore, but I do think it is easier to traverse from the SW part of the island. 
• We stayed at The Fairmont, which is highly recommended provided you want a resort experience and a resort bill at the end.
• The Road to Hana is highly demanding but can be highly rewarding. Planning here is key. There are good apps to guide your journey. You won't get it all in--the more you stop, the less distance you'll get. We actually went the entire loop around the "dangerous" undeveloped part of the island. It was truly treacherous at times but still doable for a minivan. Not sure if I'd recommend it as opposed to reversing course to head back home. But doing so wouldn't have saved us any time since I wanted to make it to the half-way point of The Pools at 'Ohe'o. 
• From a prior trip, I can highly recommend biking down Haleakalā. 
• Maui Pineapple Tour was very interesting and fun. I've never seen Dole's operation, but I image it to be on the other end of the production frontier--Maui Gold is charmingly but surprisingly a trip back to farming circa 1950.
• Iao Needle state park is underappreciated. For the intrepid, consider disobeying the signs and hiking the prohibited trails. It is an awesome scenic adventure. 
• Unfortunately I didn't get to try the many famous and/or recommended dining spots that are still on my Want To Go list. The two at the hotel, Kō and Nick's Fishmarket, were very good but . . . did I mention resort prices? The labor shortages were most acutely seen here as perhaps only 1/3rd of Ko was open and service in general throughout the island was poor.
• For the price of airfare (explicit cost, time in the air, and jetlag effects) plan to stay in Hawaii for as long as possible--at least one week. There is always more to do including doing nothing.

Aloha!

The Reopening - The View from Las Vegas

As a reward to myself for blogging every day in May, I travelled to the place that is at the same time the most and the least American city, Las Vegas. It had been over two years since my last trip there, Super Bowl 2019. Some observations:

• It is largely unchanged at first appearance. The casinos are packed. Restaurants are hard to get into. Crowds are abundant.
• A studious observer will notice that even though casino open tables are full with high minimums, there are numerous ones, banks in fact, that are unopened. My guess as to the primary cause for this would be the labor shortage with depressed actual or forecasted demand as a secondary contributor. 
• Speaking of the labor shortage, the struggle is real. I can support Scott Sumner's prediction and observation that labor supply is low and as a result service is poor. Let's be clear, everyone I encountered from a service perspective (waitstaff, front desk, concierge, retail clerks, etc.) did a great, friendly job. But service is SLOW. Restaurant wait times are crazy (more on this in the business thought below) and reservations are required--we almost had to slum it one night at Shake Shack but fortunately got into Din Tai Fung (more on where I ate far below). There are empty tables at "full" restaurants--not a strategically spaced COVID thing. Some have yet to open. Calls to concierge and guest services had very long waits on hold. And note this: those enormous signs out front on the strip, very valuable advertising real estate, had in their rotation help wanted ads among show previews, featured restaurants, and "...the loosest slots on the strip...". 
• One of the reasons I went and took the whole family (more on this in the culture thought below) was to see the shows. Sadly, I was a bit early in my winter planning for this trip as the primary show draw for us, Cirque du Soleil, is not ready to open yet. This makes sense as it takes time to get the band back together so to speak. 
• Masks were sparsely seen among the patrons. Probably 10% wearing them at most. Various staff is more like 75%. This was different at the poker tables as only about 20% of dealers wore them, but also about 20% of players. For the players I think this was a combination of a desire to use masks strategically as well as California CDS (just anecdotal but supported by several examples--young poker players from California and elsewhere were masking even though they admitted they were vaccinated). 

Feel free to file several of the above under either or both 'lockdowns have long-term consequences' or 'pandemics have long-term consequences'.

Two more thoughts: one on culture and one on business.

1. People have always asked me when I tell them I'm taking my kids to Vegas "What is there for kids?". The answer is lots, but it is deeper than that for me. The world is for all of us. I don't subscribe to the idea that we should shelter kids in incubation chambers until they are ready for the real world. The real world gets them ready for the real world. Yes there are obvious limits. Yet this isn't simply a disagreement about a matter of degree. I think there are hard and soft lines between what a kid should and shouldn't be exposed to. People including if not especially kids are antifragile. We walked in the heat (108) as well as in the air conditioned resorts. We saw the beautiful people among the beautiful gardens of Bellagio as well as the desperately troubled on the decidedly rough sidewalks. Of course we did not attend a strip club. At the same time I did not hide their eyes at the scantily clad girls (and guys) selling groupie photo ops. Piff the Magic Dragon's show was excellent with the adult language that is not generally my 9-year-old daughter's vocabulary. I think my kids saw repeated great examples from me and my group and many others we encountered that a Las Vegas experience can be great fun while still being responsibly and reasonably behaved and coexisting with bad, excessive, undesired behavior all with the attendant consequences.
2. As mentioned above, there were long wait times for restaurants among other things. Some of this is a temporary phenomenon that will abate as the reopening completes. Yet some of it is an enduring problem. First some history: In the mid 1970s William Bennett and William Pennington began transforming Las Vegas by developing a more family-friendly environment and a more expanded idea on what the Vegas bundle should include. Add to this the innovations Steve Wynn developed. Gradually the idea that Vegas should be stingy rooms, cheap food, limited shows, and free drinks all with the desire to get gamblers gambling gave way to the idea that these other areas could be profit centers themselves and of greatly higher quality and variety. Then came the metric revolution advanced greatly by Harrah's so that the casinos could understand their customers better tailoring the experience more individually (profit maximizing price discrimination). For a long time I yearned for the casinos to recognize and reward me for not just my gaming but also for all the other revenue I was bringing with me (hotel room, restaurant spending, show attendance, etc.). Slowly this has finally been happening to where on this past trip almost all my high-end food spending is credited to my value as a customer. But there are still unclaimed chips laying on the casino floor. The OG business model dies hard. Our room at Aria was very nice, but still lacked some basic desires. I would have liked and used a minifridge that was not stocked with high-priced items with a hair-trigger system ready to charge me for an inadvertent nudging. Keep that there, but give me another one that is empty--maybe at an upcharge. How about a coffee maker or Nespresso in the room? Presumably the casino is thinking they want me out of that room on the casino floor or at the pool ordering drinks or in a restaurant. However, keep in mind they definitely do offer room service. More to the point think about the tradeoff. Instead of popping a K-cup right out of bed, I went downstairs to Starbucks in the Promenade waiting over 30 minutes in line. The wait outside the popular Salt & Ivy for brunch was >1 hour. This is not productive time for the hotel/casino. People who were not waiting right outside the restaurant looking at their phones instead were walking away to find another place probably in another property. Waiting on queue is a dead-weight loss in need of a creative, profitable solution.

Finally, here are the places where we ate with all being recommendable:

• Bardot Brasserie
• Din Tai Fung
• Salt & Ivy
• Gordon Ramsay Pub & Grill
• Mon Ami Gabi
• Eataly
• Hash House a Go Go

Where to Eat When Traveling

Summer travel season is quickly approaching. And this one promises to be crazy. On the supply side places are figuring out reopening on the fly in a rapidly changing environment and dealing with temporary shortages (in the common rather than economic sense). It may develop into an economic shortage if prices are not allowed to adjust, which I suspect will happen in many instances.

On the demand side personal balance sheets have never been so flush with cash. Combine that with the pent-up demand from a year without travel, and you have a recipe for a surge in customers. 

The list below is not time sensitive to this upcoming season. I want it to be evergreen, but hopefully it is additionally helpful for the vacation chaos of 2021.

Subject to revision, here is my advice list:

1. Eat the local cuisine - Back in grad school I was on a summer study abroad in the south of France--I learned a lot and 90% was not in the classroom. There were several lessons learned in food. One was Pizza Hut and McDonald's (royale with cheese aside) is the same the world over. Another was Tex-Mex in Toulouse is about as silly as that sounds--I don't think this would have been different had I not been from Tex-Mex country. 
2. Eat where locals (not tourists) are lining up - This helps you avoid the "world famous" place that is resting on its laurels. 
3. Dine where you will be comfortable - There is a lot to be said for challenging one's comfort zone. However, don't get so far out of your comfort zone that you can't relax and enjoy it. This includes go where your attire will fit in reasonably well and where your group will fit in. Got your kids with you? Then you're skipping passed Chez Paul. And keep in mind that truly kid-friendly places don't have to advertise that they are kid friendly.
4. Choose quantity of places over quantity of servings - When possible, choose two places over one for dinner and breakfast, perhaps three places over two or one for lunch.  Order smaller portions to accommodate. Diversification is a good strategy in more things than investing. For example, pick up coffee and a pastry early and then have or share an egg dish or waffles in an hour at another place. Don't worry about clearing your plate. That is a bad policy in general any way. 
5. Allow spontaneity / don't over plan - Reservations are necessary sometimes, and a rough outline plan is usually rewarding. Still many mistakes are made when adherence to a plan is strictly enforced. In battle no plan survives first contact with the enemy. In travel no dinner reservation survives the next bend in the road. Many a meal has been thwarted because of an unexpected photo op, "five more minutes at the craps table", a "quick last ride" on It's A Small, Small World, a shortcut through the park, etc. Also, that celebrity who is imminently about to leave the Plaza snuck out through the back door an hour ago. Go meet your friends for dinner.
6. Know your budget, allow some excess, stick to it - You're on vacation, dammit! And you want to take another sometime soon as well. Indulgence does not imply bankruptcy (read that both ways--an excuse and a warning). 
7. Use the small/medium/large/small ratio (related to #6) - You can only eat so much the same as you can only spend so much. The law of diminishing returns applies. Don't follow a calorie indulgence with another one. Space it out and pace yourself. You cannot see all of Europe in one trip. Likewise you cannot eat all of Europe in one trip.
8. [updated to add] Choose off hours - Places don't typically loose their magic when they aren't at peak capacity. Often they gain. This is not the case for places where the ambiance or surrounding entertainment is part of the experience, but that is about the show and not just the food. The last time I was in Vegas our group wisely choose not to go to Hash House A Go Go during the brunch rush (two-hour wait!) and instead went there around 6 pm getting right in. People are right to flock to that place. They are foolish to be so conventional thinking pancakes only work between 8-11 in the morning.

I'm not sure how much, but Tyler Cowen deserves a hat tip for certainly some of the above list.

This picture both supports and contradicts some of my list:

Partial List of the Best Cityscape Observation Points

The best aren’t usually in the tallest buildings or the most popular spots. 

• Paris - Terrace of Galaries Lafayette Paris Haussmann (rather than the Eiffel Tower)
• Chicago - John Hancock Building (rather than Willis (it will always be Sears to me) Tower)
• New York City - Top of the Rock at Rockefeller Center (rather than Freedom Tower or the Empire State Building—the best skyscraper in the world which can be seen very well from Top of the Rock)
• Hong Kong - The Peak (rather than Sky100 at ICC)
• Oklahoma City - The Petroleum Club of OKC top floors of BancFirst Tower (rather than VAST in Devon Tower) ... just a little nod to my local spot.
• Dallas - The Cotton Bowl in Fair Park or Dallas Petroleum Club (rather than Reunion Tower)
• Las Vegas - Skyfall Lounge, 64th floor of Mandalay Bay (rather than Eiffel Tower or Stratosphere Tower)
• Seattle - Harbor Avenue in North Admiral across Elliott Bay (rather than Space Needle)
• San Francisco - Coit Tower (rather than Salesforce Tower)
• Boston - Top of the Hub—it is too late (rather than John Hancock Tower--arguable the same view but a different experience)

City Intelligence - Knowing What I Don't Know

There are many aspects to this (things to do, how to get around, what to look for, what to avoid, etc.). In this case I am trying to solve the problem I have when visiting a new city and I want a place to eat. 

There are obviously different dining experiences I am looking for at various times. Many times this problem is solved by the benefit of branding (e.g., McDonald's and Panera Bread are the same everywhere--don't give me no Royale with Cheese counter examples). Still other times a binding constraint "solves" the problem (e.g., I am hungry NOW and this place is good enough and very close). 

But what about those times when I am going for a nice weekend date with my wife out of town or travelling with friends to a football game and need a good meal the night before or on a business trip with a colleague and/or client? Perhaps a matching process I will call "Goldilocks" could be the solution. 

Basically what I am envisioning is a big-data solution that will take my prior experiences and my general preferences and combine them with similar cohorts to develop a suggestion algorithm. I know others have and are trying this, but I have yet to come across anything close to being as robust and easy to use as I desire. Perhaps simplifying the input dimensions and ranking options is the key to being accurate in prediction, reliably useful, and fast. 

The process would start with a few questions and then followup after with the same questions to build and refine calibration:

• What type of dinning experience are you wanting: more formal than average or more casual than average?
• Overall for what you desired was this restaurant too formal, too casual, or just right?
• Are you looking for: a lively more festive place or a quiet more intimate place?
• Was the restaurant too loud, too quiet, or just right?

Some additional questions would be asked after the experience to further enhance the database:

• How did the food's taste and presentation meet your expectations: better, worse, or just right?
• How did the service meet your expectations: better, worse, or just right?
• How did the value for the price paid meet your expectations: better, worse, or just right?
• How would you rate this restaurant overall: excellent, just right, or poor?

The goal would be to suggest restaurants that were just right. Why not always hope to exceed expectations? Because expectations should change such that just right is, well, just right.

Highly Linkable

I want to go to there.

For those of you pondering in your apartments 'why should I read in my shower when I could listen to a podcast in my tub', this edition of links is especially for you.

First of all, EconTalk has been on a tear lately. Three gems:

Marina Krakovsky on the Middleman Economy

Jayson Lusk on Food, Technology, and Unnaturally Delicious

Matt Ridley on the Evolution of Everything

Second, Bejamin Powell joins Free Thoughts to discuss Out of Poverty: Sweatshops in the Global Economy.

Third, Uber co-founder Travis Kalanick shares how Uber plans to kill Big Traffic. BTW, Lyft is getting in on the carpool action as well.

Now for those who prefer to click and read the way nature intended:

Kavin Senapathy writing in Forbes suggests we not get too excited about the prospects (and promises) of microbiome makeovers.

Leave it to Grumpy to throw cold water on the magical promises coming out of the Sanders for Tsar camp.

So a science professor claims to have discovered a hidden value accruing to certain members of a particular profession, and a history professor is pretty sure he knows how much several groups of people in a profession should be paid. Luckily, Andy Schwartz is here to disagree.

Phil Magness draws interesting parallels between failed economic modeling and failed climate modeling. The money paragraph (HT: Arnold Kling):

In a strange way, modern climatology shares much in common with the approach of 1950s Keynesian macroeconomics. It usually starts with a number of sweeping assumptions about the relation between atmospheric carbon and temperature, and presumes to isolate them to specific forms of human activity. It then purports to “predict” the effects of those assumptions with extraordinarily great precision across many decades or even centuries into the future. It even has its own valves to turn and levers to pull – restrict carbon emissions by X%, and the average temperature will supposedly go down by Y degrees. Tax gasoline by X dollar amount, watch sea level rise dissipate by Y centimeters, and so forth. And yet as a testable predictor, its models almost consistently overestimate warming in absurdly alarmist directions and its results claim implausible precision for highly isolated events taking place many decades in the future. These faults also seem to plague the climate models even as we may still accept that some level of warming is occurring.

Wine: It's More Like Art Than Real Estate

I just returned from Sonoma--so I'm an expert on all things wine for the next month or so.

One could really get used to a life out there: beautiful weather, wonderful entertainment and dining options, friendly and interesting people. What was it that Kurt Vonnegat didn't actually say? "Live in Northern California once, but leave before it makes you soft. Travel."

As we all know, not all wine is created equal and price is NOT the way to tell the difference.

I was enjoying our first tour and tasting at Far Niente when it fermented in my mind how people tend to not understand how to think about wine. The wines at Far Niente are superb . . . in my opinion. Fortunately, I don't find them so superb that it spoils less expensive wine for me. I can appreciate both the difference and that it is a difference rather than a superiority.

Many people don't understand this. They want to think about it linearly: good to bad = expensive to cheap. But wine is not something so simply categorized. The evaluation is multidimensional. Comparing wine is not as simple as comparing soft drinks. Soft drinks are much more a commodity (both in supply as well as demand). There are taste preferences, but the taste dimension has much tighter bounds in soft drinks than with wine.

Doesn't price correlate with quality, you ask. Yes, but quality is in the eye of the beholder. People want wine to be like real estate where quality tends to be relatively linear in definition. Larger dominates smaller. Most people tend to agree most of the time on location preferences. Elaborate dominates simplistic. And so on. There is of course a lot of room for personal taste differences in real estate. It is just that these are muted relative to the linear factors.

Instead of real estate consider wine to be like art. Here there are vast differences in personal taste and these tend to be overwhelming. It is a lucky man who can get as much joy out of his child's painting as he can a Picasso. I look at wine the same way. Our very sophisticated yet down-to-earth guide at Far Niente is perhaps cursed with a high appreciation for fine wine.

Adapting the analogy to hit closer to home, consider the differences in football appreciation. For some only the NFL will do. For others watching the same college team when good and even when not so good is the top preference. Still for others even any small college game gets the job done. Is devotedly liking OU or Texas or Alabama superior to having the same devotion to Kansas or Tulane or Indiana? Of course not. Sitting in premium seats to watch OU beat Texas is consuming an altogether different product as compared to casually watching from home or listening on the radio while you work on your car. It is essentially a coincidence that these three things involve the same sporting event facts and outcome. My meal at Bouchon and your meal at McDonald's share only the coincidence that both involved digestion.

There is one other aspect to consider when it comes to the price of wine: namely, budget constraints matter. One factor that determines consumer responsiveness to price changes (the technical term is elasticity) is how much of a consumer's wealth the price represents. Pencils are a classic example as they are usually so cheap that a large increase in price does not cause a large decrease in the amount purchased (price inelastic). Wine is not an inelastic good for me. So to ask if a bottle that is 10x the price of another is 10x as satisfying is relevant to me. But it is not relevant for a billionaire. So understand that the price dynamics in part of the wine (and art and sports attendance) market is simply not relevant to many of us.

PS. Here are some pictures from my trip. Random thought: How less popular would wine be if it were produced in less amazing places?