Wednesday, February 27, 2019

Ranking College Football Programs - 1970-2018

It is about time that I updated my previous work on ranking college football programs.

Recalling the methodology from before, I am attempting to answer who's better, who's best. I am limiting the data set to my generation (1970 through 2018) because it happens to coincide with what I believe is the modern era of college football. To rank the teams I use average margin of victory. Opinions could differ, but who are you to criticize? Join together with your like-minded brethren to create your own list. Just be objective rather than try to fool us again with some anyway, anyhow, anywhere to make your team come out on top.

The results are below and the spreadsheet with the full analysis is here.

Since 1970:


Since 1998 (BCS and College Football Playoff era):


Since 2014 (College Football Playoff era):


Saturday, February 16, 2019

Render Unto Caesar

I just filed my tax return, so it seems like a logical time to post on taxes.

The current regime (a Democrat-Republican alliance co-opted by many special interests (law-financial planning-accounting industrial complex, real estate industrial complex, big farm, big charity, and on and on)) has us running in circles.

On the one hand they giveth: corporate tax rate cut and increase in standard deduction--the two true highlights of the 2017 Trump tax reform.

On the other hand they taketh away: tariffs, which are just taxes on U.S. consumers, and threats of escalations in complexity and burden, +70% top rates and wealth taxes to name a couple.

I continue to find actual tax policies (basically everywhere) and most general discussion about tax policy to be a strong indictment of where we are as a society and how (un)critically we think. As an alien visiting your simple planet, I find it quite humorous how unsophisticated and corrupt the whole of taxation is and has always been. It is a Baptists and Bootleggers conspiracy combining the dumb with the evil.

As an example, an awkward tension exists between where implied tax levels are (the amount needed to pay for all the obligations and expenditures currently in place) and the current, explicit tax level actually in place (higher than commonly believed, but not high enough). The Republicans/conservatives cannot admit the Democrat/progressive proposal for very high rates is necessary for the very spending they are a partner in. Likewise the Democrats/progressives cannot admit the Republican/conservative fear of high taxation smothering future wealth is well placed.

There is hope. There are great ideas being well communicated and lurking in the forest. Examples:

Scott Sumner says tax luxury not wealth or income.

John Cochrane takes Krugman, et al. to task for lending support for some recent nonsense and he follows it up with a good discussion on the effective property tax rate.

Tyler Cowen warns that the Warren Wealth Tax won't be as popular (or desirable) as Democrats believe.

Related to all this is the UBI, and if you don't realize the relation, you aren't thinking critically enough. Arnold Kling offers some thoughts, and note the abstract of this recent paper (HT: Tyler Cowen).

Wednesday, February 13, 2019

Highly Linkable - Q&Q Edition

Nat Eliason asks: How many of these psychology myths do you still believe (or did until reading this post)? There are several I want to be true and perhaps they are at some level--just not to the extent originally purported or popularly presumed.

Scott Alexander asks: Is science slowing down?

Arnold Kling asked for readers to share their favorite Klassic Klingisms: They did not disappoint.

Scott Sumner asks: How should we think about the theft of intellectual property? and Can we handle the truth?

Bryan Caplan asks: How is immigration like nuclear power?

Saturday, February 9, 2019

Government Shouldn't Run Healthcare, Etc. -- Round Basketball Court Edition

Driving by watching this park develop years ago it surprised me as I noticed this circular pavement being built not knowing what it was going to be.



When basketball goals went up I became irritated and was reminded of this irritation again every day as a drove by. Anyone who plays or watches basketball knows this is not what a basketball court looks like or how it is played. In fact it is dangerous. Not just because anyone who has played much basketball builds a muscle memory of the court being rectangular with corners extending to a baseline, but simply because the natural flow of play will take people off of the edge of this circular court.

Of course, this is not something to go to the mattresses over. As frustrating as it is, this incorrectly built basketball court is not the problem; it is just a symptom.

The problem is that even though a strong public goods case can be made for local government’s role in parks, government is ill-suited to successfully provide parks. It is not for lack of good intentions and not even necessarily for lack of good, intelligent people. Rather it is because of a lack of good incentives or perhaps more accurately a good incentive structure.

Government doesn’t have the right feedback loop. Government actors do not have the tools they need to course correct as they make decisions. It doesn’t matter that it won’t be the same people who designed and built this park trying to run healthcare or trying to guide the financial system or trying to fight wars or trying to [insert whatever grandiose project you want government to do]. And it does not matter that there will be enormously greater resources devoted to the grandiose project; in fact that probably makes it worse.

One High Net Worth Investment Manager's Plea: "Raise Tax Rates to 70% NOW!"

Shout it (and dance it) from the rooftops! We need higher tax rates on the rich. I'm not greedy. This is all I ask.

Please raise rates like in the good ole’ days.

Give me a way to help rich people shelter income from the tax man.

Bring back all the intentional loopholes, the legal methods to ensure that old money stayed on top.

Help me tie up capital in ways that benefit the haves and fill my pockets as well as those of tax lawyers and Wall Street financiers. It isn't just me that is hurting. Plenty of other people were promised lifetime high incomes and prestigious positions. Now we are forced to sully ourselves with talk of "adding value" and "matching the benchmark"--as if I should have to justify my 6-figure bonus. I have an MBA, for God's sake!

I don't mean to lose my cool, but I have had enough. In this world of passive investing, low fees, minimal commissions, and democratized capital we desperately need a way to justify our enormous salaries which fund our lavish lifestyles.

I am so disappointed in recent politicians. I'll tell you something. This country is going to the dogs. You know, it used to be when you bought a politician, that SOB stayed bought. Now they are raising the standard deduction and taking away options like having taxpayers help rich people pay for stuff--no more tax breaks for $100,000 football suites, etc.

We had a great system. It was working just fine during the days of Ike. They warned that kid, Kennedy, not to go down that path of "rising tide lifts all boats". Don't let the camel's nose into the sheikh's tent. He did it anyway.

Dream of a better tomorrow starting today. Imagine how more complex and elaborate our schemes could be in the modern world of international world of finance. Give me a 1,000 billable hours and a few well lobbied-for loopholes, and I could craft a perpetual wealth-shelter machine to ensure no taxman or 99-percenter ever touched a penny of great-granddad's fortune.

First they come for the 150-foot yachts...


Taking my tongue out of my cheek, the sad reality is we are still far, far away from an efficient, effective, fair, and simple tax regime (see also the long version). Progress has been made, but so much remains.