Saturday, February 25, 2017

The Best Laid Plans

It is hard to stop planning--to go from preparing, which is safe and a bit fun, to actually doing. It can be hard to actually use stuff you've been keeping for that special occasion or rainy day. But that is why you were keeping it in the first place! 

Studying is ultimately about performance on the test. Practice is ultimately about playing in the game. Planning is ultimately about execution. Saving is deferred but eventual using.

In Evernote I have a note that serves as a brainstorm journal on blogposts I am planning to write but haven't yet. It is literally 19 pages long. Lack of time and a character flaw of perfectionism are my excuses for the procrastination.

Here is some good advice on converting planning into doing. 

Here is the case against 'just-in-case' items. 

Often we are not actually planning at all--we are just daydreaming. Daydreams can be ends in themselves, but their seductive allure can be destructive as they can be the antithesis of achievement. Daydreaming can be the first stage in the three-act progression (dream-plan-achieve). It can also be a fantasy world that doesn't and won't ever exist. Recognizing which one you are engaged in is vital to success. It is easy to confuse yourself in this regard and easier still to confuse those who are making their own plans around yours. 

My advice, which is for myself as much as anyone, is to not allow the 'someday I'd like to ...' daydreaming without honestly identifying if I am writing fiction or making plans. Ideally this would avoid the confusion of daydreaming as ends and daydreaming as means. Get busy living or get busy dying. There are enough real constraints preventing us from 'someday' being 'today'. Life doesn't need any help with roadblocks. Aspire to the end result, but admit that aspiration is just fruitless desire in the absence of actual progress. Plan to do.

R.I.P. Rosling and Arrow

This month saw the passing of two giants. Not many people in history truly change minds. These two men did.

Kenneth Arrow: Among his many contributions, he proved that majority-voting will always lead to suboptimal results. There are many fine tributes linked here.

Hans Rosling: Among his many contributions, he showed time and again that what we believe about poverty and development is simply and tragically wrong. Tim Harford has a great More or Less podcast tribute. The NYT obit is good too.

May their ideas, influence, and spirits live on.

Thursday, February 23, 2017

Update on the Once and Future Tsar

Well, we are one month into the greatness. And it has been stellar!

Steve Palpatine Bannon finally spoke using his own voice instead of the orange puppet. Spoiler alert: Anyone who proudly speaks of 'economic nationalism' isn't going to win the Shazam Prize in Economics

He laid out three pillars of Trump's plan, and two out of three were bad. He starts with national security and sovereignty--we know how that has gone so far. Next comes the same type of thinking applied to trade--you see, kids, menage a trois (or menage a beaucoup when plus de deux) is bad in trade. Lastly is a promise that I would like to see come to play out, 'deconstruction' of the administrative state--can we count on this crew to pull anything like that off? I am highly doubtful. I believe they lack the ideological integrity to follow through or the intellectual acuity to be successful. My guess is that they want the administrative state to work for them rather than to truly reduce its breadth or depth.

What about Dodd-Frank and Obamacare reform? Well, where is the Republican Congress? They are the only chance at that. Meanwhile we lose ground on immigration, drug policy, and asset forfeiture. School choice, reversing net neutrality, and satire are among the areas that still have a good degree of optimism for progress. 

We will see...

Tuesday, February 14, 2017

Highly Linkable

First of all, it is settled--I will be inviting Alton to my Super Bowl party next year.

But I'm not inviting Adam because he ruins everything--in this case debunking 13 things that aren't true.

Carol Anne, they're out there.

Speaking of scary things, the news isn't so calming. I find Bryan Caplan's advice to be a sound counter to the tide of common opinion. 

The most I'll allow myself to speculate is that the supposed momentum issue in today's politics of a desire to look inwardly to protect what we have and regain what we've lost will be soon enough revealed as a chimera based on delusion. As Scott Sumner says, absolute poverty dwarfs relative discomfort as a material issue. (BTW, thanks again to Scott for his time in OKC and his nice comments at the bottom of that post).

If you want evidence of how phony the President's argument is and the unlikelihood of lasting "reforms" brought by his administration, look to this illustration of just one widget's journey through a supply chain that spans all of the NAFTA countries. (hat tip: David Henderson)

Alas, fear of Trump ruination continues to grip many. I recommend more advice from Bryan Caplan--embrace limited government!

Trump's own ruination appears more likely to me. I am just surprised by how fast it seems to be developing (perhaps this is wishful thinking). In fact I fear it will all be but wishful thinking that meaningful, good reforms will come from this Republican government. Perhaps Congress will be compelled to tell The Donald "You're Fired!" in short order and a President Pence can then be the signator to healthcare reform, corporate tax reform, and perhaps even major tax reform that can be bundled with climate change (externality) reform. It is amazing how simple and achievable these solutions can be--and accessible when presented by John Cochrane.

What I'm Listening To (Podcast Rundown)

Between my daily commute and my work travels, I get a lot of windshield time. That is all made a lot easier now that the world has podcasts. Here is my current subscription list in somewhat my listening preference order. Of course, length, topicality, and my personal mood make that order a moving target--so don't read too much into it.

Podcast Comments
EconTalk If you asked me for the most consistently rewarding podcast, this is where I would point you.
Freakonomics If you were brand new to podcasts, this is where I would have you start.
MRUniversity Bite-sized, very well crafted economics lessons. All are self recommending. Money Skills, Econ Duel, and Everyday Economics are perhaps my top recommendations for newcomers. Macro and Micro are excellent introductory courses. 
Cato Daily Podcast If you asked for the best briefing on political topics, this is the one I'd recommend.
Reason Video Podcast Reason has their stuff together. From humorous, short parodies and commentaries to long-form interviews, this videocast is well worth it. Trigger warning, they often cover topics that will leave you mystified if not down right enraged.
Conversations with Tyler He has a wonderful gift for getting deeply into a deep, impactful thinker's mind. 
The Alton Browncast Would we expect anything less than gold from the most entertaining chef in history? Terrifically it is generally not about food; although, it is often loaded with food. 
Free Thoughts If you wanted to seriously learn about libertarian thought, this would be the best podcast source. Even-toned, intelligent, and accessible.
The Way I Heard It with Mike Rowe If you remember the best part of AM radio, you'll be instantly hooked on this one. If you can't, don't worry. You'll still be hooked.
The Libertarian Podcast A well-reasoned, deeply educated, libertarian take on the issues of the day. I find myself in strong agreement 95% of the time. I listen to podcasts now at 2x speed. This one is usually the most difficult in that regard even though I know the topic well. Epstein talks and thinks FAST!
So you can probably pick one of these next three (Ferriss, Altucher, Manliness) finding the one whose style best fits your taste and get most of the same content since the guests tend to overlap so much. However, I find each rewarding in its own right.
The Tim Ferriss Show I like how he has a life-hacking approach to, well, life and how he turns each guest into a teacher revealing the tools they have used for success.
The James Altucher Show His style lends itself to an approachable format. The constant interruptions are a feature in that they provoke a more meaningful conversation.
The Art of Manliness A pretty good way to check up on and improve upon your personal level of grit.
Macro Musings Macro is the most controversial part of economics. It is perhaps not surprisingly also one of the most difficult to understand. David Beckworth does a splendid job illuminating the sources of controversy and reducing the confusion of the subject.
Penn's Sunday School Entertaining first and foremost. I find his support for liberty and libertarianism a strong virtue despite my quibbles here and there with his delivery or details (in his defense he ALWAYS includes the disclaimer that he is "wrong, wrong, wrong!"). The atheism, which is arguably the point of the podcast, can be a good challenge to my own religious beliefs as well as a healthy way to learn from a convicted, intelligent advocate from the other side. 
99% Invisible Weekly they manage to make interesting the details about stuff all around us that we completely ignore.
Reply All This one almost never fails to bring me new information. I have found quite a few of these episodes very surprisingly interesting--even after my expectations were elevated. The only negative is when it makes me feel old. I am basically always in the "No" category of "Yes, Yes, No".
Myths and Legends Recommended by a Fribrarian. This one surprised me with how addictive it is. I swear I'm not this big of a nerd.
TEDTalks (hd) I would guess I make it all the way through about one third of these with one third skipped altogether just based on the topic and description. The ones I do select make the subscription well worth it.
Revisionist History Counter-conventional wisdom from a wise counter conventional. 
50 Things That Made the Modern Economy Tim Harford--so say no more. Dense vignettes about . . .  well, read the title.
Cato Event Podcast Heavy on the wonk factor, but I like to go deep. 
More or Less: Behind the Stats Tim Harford, again. While the circumstances of specific cases in their numbers analyses are compelling, it is the ubiquitous principals at work where the real learning lies.
MinuteEarth Almost always pretty interesting (and if not, it is only 1-3 minutes long), these, like their now podcast dormant forefather MinutePhysics (you can still get it on YouTube (hey, I need to do a post about what I'm watching on YouTube)), are how primary school science should be taught.
Economic Rockstar This one gives me exposure to economists I wouldn't normally be exposed to (getting me outside my bubble).
Surprisingly Awesome They take the mundane and show how it is actually not so bad and sometimes even quite amazing.
StartUp Podcast Like the Serial podcast, there was significant drop off between season 1 and season 2, but I still found season 2 rewarding. Season 3 was a step up, and it has gotten better in season 4.
Tell Me Something I Don't Know Since this one is directly about a common theme in most of my podcasts, it seems obvious that I would follow it. However, it is new. And while results so far have been rewarding, time will tell if it has staying power.
Science Vs Overall, a good concept and good execution. The limits it runs into are symptomatic of the very premise--you can't let "what does the science say" run your life. It is not so simple. Science doesn't allow for normative claims.
The Moment with Brian Koppelman These interviews are an interesting twist on the traditional 'talk to a famous or important person'. He is good at evoking the interviewees' source of their personal success.
StarTalk Radio Another Fribrarian recommendation. Two things about this one make it a draw for me: 1) they cover an area of interest for which I am a only superficially well informed, and 2) they think about problems differently than do I which serves to expand my thought processes. The negative is when they venture into areas they do not know well; namely economics. They can be astonishingly poor at economic reasoning.
Heavyweight This one has been hit and miss. The storytelling is compelling, but the content isn't always so. 
Dan Carlin's Hardcore History From a friend's recommendation. Haven't started it yet, but it looks promising. Episodes are looooonnnnggg.

Thursday, February 2, 2017

Choosing Your Neighbors

If I had my druthers, I would choose retired couples who are infatuated with my children. The advantages are numerous including:

  • They'd be quiet.
  • They'd keep an eye out.
  • They'd keep their yard tidy.
  • They'd dote on my children.
  • They'd think I invented technology.
  • They'd be dependable and predictable.

One might think I'd say sorority girls who enjoy their pool parties. Problems range from making me feel old and unattractive to finding me attractive and tempting me to throw away a lifetime for 30 minutes of bliss (or performance anxiety).

The reality is you can't choose your neighbors. And you probably wouldn't want to. Turns out those older retired couples have some bad qualities too. They are pretty good at minding your business. They are always up for conversation--ALWAYS. If they spot you in the yard, you are automatically in for a round of "Let's Talk About My Latest Doctor Visit". They know the neighborhood covenants extremely well including all the ones you are currently breaking, and they know that those covenants are not suggestions--they are serious dogma to be followed with strict religiosity. They like things as they are and better yet as they were and best yet as never changing.

There are no perfect neighbors. This documentary proves it.

Planning out and carefully choosing those around us would create a stale, uninspiring bubble world with high susceptibility to overrate the qualities we think we want and underrate those we think we want to avoid. Those biases would yield continuously disappointing results.

To a large degree you do get to pick your neighbors and they get to pick you. Our lives are characterized greatly by self selection. Fortunately it isn't the sole determining factor, though. New ideas, new opportunities, new methods: these things come from chance encounters and unplanned coordination and interaction.

Look at immigration as this microcosm writ large, and think about it from a purely selfish perspective. Every immigrant we discourage, turn away, or ban is another worker, another set of new ideas, another opportunity to discover something didn't know existed but now eagerly want.