Wojcicki says that’s just not going to happen. “We’re not evil,” she says. “Our brand is being direct-to-consumer and affordable.” For the time being she’s focused on the long, painful process of drug development. She’d like to think she’s earned some trust, but she hasn’t come this far on faith.
Sunday, April 24, 2022
If you've ever handled a penny, the government's got your DNA.
Thursday, May 13, 2021
Great News, Everybody! They Are Just Stupid. Not Evil.
- Update that fully vaccinated people no longer need to wear a mask or physically distance in any setting, except where required by federal, state, local, tribal, or territorial laws, rules, and regulations, including local business and workplace guidance
- Update that fully vaccinated people can refrain from testing following a known exposure unless they are residents or employees of a correctional or detention facility or a homeless shelter
Thursday, October 8, 2020
What Explains Country Variation in COVID Deaths?
I see a lot of vague or implied speculation on why there are such large differences in COVID-19 death rates (et al.) among various countries and regions. But many of these have internal tensions once we think a little deeply about the arguments being hinted at. Biases are leading to a lot of lies of omission if not just outright bad reasoning.
Why is Sweden different than Finland? What explains Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea versus France, Italy, and Spain? Germany versus Belgium? USA NE versus Texas versus Florida versus USA Midwest?
Here is a partial list of the usual and some unusual suspects:
- General health in the population
- Partial immunity including from prior coronavirus exposures
- Climate including ability to comfortably be outdoors and in open-air environments (definitely relative to when the virus struck)
- Prior and continued use of various drugs and treatments
- Proportion of at-risk people especially elderly
- Quality of procedures for protecting the vulnerable
- Quality of testing
- Quality of tracing
- Population density (within cities and otherwise relative to where people actually live; e.g., excluding most of Canada when measuring for Canada)
- Government NPIs including lockdowns and other policies but not test and/or trace
- Degree of movement within and among various communities (city to city, within a city, cross sociodemographic, in and out of country, et al.)
- Strain(s) of C-19 virus affecting country and timing of the infection
The Forrest Gump Diet: A few simple rules for a better diet
Most dieting plans are nonsense. And most dieting is not about losing weight--it is about signaling that one would like to lose weight, is involved in a struggle, and would like sympathy. If people really wanted to lose weight, they would.
Diets come in a thousand varieties, but it is clear that while each might work for a while for some people, they fail (or people fail them) as often as they work. That we know so very little about this highly desired realm of knowledge, it is a big economic paradox. My guess is that it is highly dependent on individual circumstances (extreme heterogeneity) and these are both governed by external environmental factors including cultural influences as well as genetic factors. As such, one size fits more than one might not be true. And yet I do think some guiding principles can be derived that can greatly help us on our journey:
- Eat when you are hungry. (Note that this pushes back against intermittent fasting.)
- Eat slower. You are not in a speed contest.
- Eat less. You are not in a volume contest. This can most easily be achieved by simply not ever completely finishing what you have been served.
- Eat less of the things that you want to eat. It is very likely that your desire is to eat more of the things that are not as good for you.
- Eat more of the things that are not as desirable to you. This is the converse of the prior point.
- Eat a greater variety. This likely helps with the gut microbiome, and it makes life more interesting. That said, some things may just not be right for your body, and that is fine.
- Eat less processed foods and prepackaged foods. This one helps with #s 2, 3, and 4 by making food less convenient especially food that is generally nutritionally poorer for you.
- Look to make good choices at the margin, but diet over weeks and months not hours and days. No one ever starved to death by missing a single meal, and no one ever became obese by indulging oneself one time.
- The first key is to avoid temptation by avoiding bad situations.
- The second key is to routinely seek to make a slightly better choice at each opportunity.
- The final key is to be able to look back over weeks and months to see if you have generally been making good choices and improving choices. While this might entail the need to keep a journal, which is contrary to the spirit of this list of keeping things simple, evaluations over longer periods of time are essential to understanding if you’re making progress.
Wednesday, September 2, 2020
In Case of Pandemic Break Glass
Friday, August 7, 2020
What To Root For
Tuesday, January 23, 2018
Highly Linkable - Food and Health Myths
From Vox, the science is in: exercise won’t help you lose much weight. Count this (that exercise helps weight loss) among the many things I adamantly believed up until few years ago.
In this James Altucher podcast Dr. Aaron Carroll explores some of his book The Bad Food Bible: How and Why to Eat Sinfully. Quit looking for magic food. Quit worrying about toxic food. Eat what works for you. Stay away from processed foods and too much (i.e., added) sugar.
Slate explores the implications of the junk science used to ban smoking on grounds of secondhand dangers. I believe we are in an age of rising puritanism. Tobacco is the drug in the cross hairs. It is low brow. Interestingly alcohol and marijuana are higher and rising status. Once again, mood affiliation and out-group shaming guides public policy. (HT: Robin Hanson)
On a more upbeat note, here is a great guide to finding a restaurant. Lots here about correctly interpreting the signals being given--both intentional and unintentional. (HT: Tyler Cowen)
Monday, February 23, 2015
Highly Linkable
I could watch this all day--a toy world that is the real world of Iceland and Norway. (HT: Tyler Cowen)
Along that theme, the world is a splendid, big place.
Driverless cars > race car drivers. (HT: Tyler Cowen)
Economic reality > good intentions.
(Public choice) economic reality (is also) > good intentions.
This piece by Megan McArdle hits several good points; namely that it is basically impossible to defend the Crusades and crusaders, Christianity was not and is not the Crusades, and disassociating oneself from something ugly that one was in fact never associated with is a cheap political gimmick.
And now a bit about diet, nutrition, and health:
- The [arguable] truth about "miracle" foods. (I'm a little uncomfortable with this otherwise very good article's appeal to regulatory authority.)
- Speaking of the regulatory authority's lack of credibility . . . dietary cholesterol isn't a worry . . . what'chu talkin' 'bout Willis?
- This Ask Altucher with Ari Whitten of The Low Carb Myth gives a view that speaks very closely to my own, novice view. It is short and rewarding, but takes a minute to get going.