A Hypothetical SARS-CoV-2 Study

Perhaps this already exists, but I doubt it. At least I do not expect this ambitious of a study has been attempted at the rigor I desire. And I know it is a lot to ask. 

Nevertheless, here is the rough outline of what I'd love to see done well.

Independent variables examined using county-level data for the U.S.:

• 20-day trailing average humidity
• 20-day trailing average temperature
• Latitude 
• Population density
• Stringency measure (government-mandated restrictions)
• Mobility measure during COVID relative to the same mobility measure average value for 2019
• Median income
• Proportion of population 65+
• Percentage of elderly in LTC facilities
• Population proportion by ethnic/race ancestry (hypothesizing that prior immunities are associated different geographies)
• Date of first case within y-hundred miles (adjusting for treatments, interventions, etc. changing over the timeline)

Results:

• I would like to see the cross sectional results of confirmed COVID deaths by standardized timeline (from date of first case; from date of first death; from x days past first case within y-hundred miles).
• I would also like to see the time series analysis in total and by various cohorts for confirmed COVID deaths. 

My general hypothesis is that every thoughtful observer will find the results somewhat surprising. These same, thoughtful observers come at the problem with their own biases and priors as well as some unintentional agendas (the intentional agendas are for the unthoughtful observers). I think they tend to emphasize the areas they find compelling while somewhat negligently remaining silent or quiet on the areas they actually don't disagree about but feel are overemphasized by others. To that extent there is a lot of talking past one another. I am very specifically thinking about the realms of both the libertarian/classical liberal/neoliberal/generally freedom-championing thinkers and the economists/social and public policy thinkers. 

The problem is the audience has very much grown and diversified for these thinkers. It is very hard for the casual observer to understand the nuance and the starting positions of general agreement. For example, the public has always been completely oblivious about the fact that economists agree fundamentally to the vast extent that they do.

In the case of COVID this problem has been greatly magnified. And at the same time the slippage into hyperbole has been greatly amplified too. The result is painting ourselves into corner solutions. When the narrative has been taken to the extent that many so often and so easily have taken it (myself included of course), our narratives tend to fall apart. Again, this is for the thoughtful observers. 

P.S. Yes, at first glance I can see potential problems with the independent variables, and I assume there are many more I can't yet imagine. The covariance between stringency and mobility might force one of them out of the analysis. In that case I would like to see a rigorous comparison between just these two--Phil Magness points to some of what I would expect in that voluntary mobility changes dominate policy. After all, politicians follow rather than lead.