Thursday, February 18, 2021

It Depends . . .

One-dimensional thinking vs deeper-level thinking (AKA, solve for the equilibrium).

Considering this:One-dimensional thinking concludes:Deeper-level thinking concludes:
To arrive at a destinations sooner one should drive…FasterSlower
A risk-averse investor should consider taking on…Less market riskMore market risk
A successful salesperson…Knows how to get what she wantsKnows how to satisfy peoples’ needs
To increase revenues...Increase pricesLower prices or offer coupons
To reduce the damages of a dangerous vice...Prohibit itNormalize it
To better preserve competitive balance in sports leagues...Restrict player compensationLiberalize player compensation
To reduce the risk of gun violence there should be...More gun restrictionLess gun restriction
To change minds...Speak moreListen more
To increase the income of low-skilled workers...Enforce high minimum wages lawsLower or eliminate minimum wage laws
A satisfied restaurant customer...Cleans his plateLeaves some food uneaten
Basketball teams who shoot poorly (have a low percentage of shots that go in) should...Be highly selective with their shotsShoot the ball a lot more
To help the children who toil in child-labor manufacturing we should...Ban and boycott their productsBuy and enjoy their products

Sometimes the obvious is right, and fast thinking serves us well; sometimes the less obvious is right, and slow thinking serves us better.



Saturday, February 13, 2021

Biden O/U Performance Predictions

Admittedly I’m being too vague to be falsifiable, but set some agreeable terms, and I’m willing to bet (#MoneyWhereMyMouthIs #TaxOnBullshit). 

Here is a partial list of what I predict the Biden Administration's performance will be in a number of important areas. Specifically where will it outperform (Over) and where will it underperform (Under) the conventional wisdom’s current estimation. To be clear this is where it will be better/worse from my desired perspective than the conventional wisdom’s current estimation. 

For example, I think the conventional wisdom is that Biden will greatly raise personal and corporate income tax rates, increase capital gains tax rates, and restore the SALT deduction. Mostly all bad items from my perspective. I think it won't be as bad as assumed. Likewise, it is presumed that he will user in a much better world of trade and immigration policy. I think it meaningfully won't be that good. 

Over:
Taxes
Environmental regulation
Other general business regulation
Minimum wage

Under:
Trade
Immigration
Drug policy
Health regulation
COVID
Foreign policy (not including hot wars)
Police reform

On Target (bettingwise = no action):
War (actual hostilities)
Education
Demagoguery and divisive politics





Wednesday, February 10, 2021

Fine Art Markets as Taxes on the Rich

I previously explored some of the many problems with art markets and art museums in particular. Let us now turn to the question of the art of taxing art.

The counter to the oft made accusation that lotteries are taxes on the poor might be that fine art is a tax on the rich. What better way for the rich the be relieved of their capital? 

Assuming the rich won't be investing it studiously, using their capital to purchase art at highly inflated prices is preferred to them spending it on goods and services with more tangible resource demands, and perhaps it is preferred to them giving it away to charity. If we don't trust them to invest it well, why would we trust them to donate it any better. 

Of course, we have to think this through. Doesn’t somebody end up using the funds to purchase consumption? Likely in many cases, but as long as they are operating in a closed system (I buy your painting, you buy my sculpture), this needn’t be the case. 

And all the better if the art is fake. Turns out a lot of the art in museums is fake (perhaps +5%), and all the players in the art world are on the take to keep this a secret. If the rich are swapping art at inflated prices that isn't actually authentic art, we have them well occupied spending their wealth, potential demands on resources, on a minimal amount of actual resources. Listen to Michael Lewis' The Hand of Leonardo for more on this. 

Yes, it would push resources into pursuing production/creation of fine art (too many painters and sculptors) but is this really so bad at the margin? 

How should we actually tax it? Tax deductibility for donations to museums is problematic. If I give up a non-income producing asset, why should I necessarily avoid an income tax? And if I give it to an entity exempt from income tax, this is doubly problematic. Should we separate fine art from collectibles (wine vs paintings vs classic cars vs musical instruments, etc.) with the ultimate distinction being those that are value-holding assets (similar to precious metals) versus those that are consumption assets? How much of each quality does a piece of art possess and who decides? This gets pretty fraught pretty quickly. Back to Michael Lewis' podcast above, the compromised ref is very much at risk.

Should we exclude art and collectibles transactions under a consumption tax such as a VAT or national sales tax? These activities aren’t significant resource consumptions. All else equal we want to encourage this swapping as opposed to the funds being spent on actual resources.

If you tax something, you get less of it. My principal is to tax the use of resources and not the creation of resources. A consumption tax does this, but items like art pose problems. Unlike pure capital assets (stocks and bonds for example), collectibles have consumption value and use resources. It looks to me at first glance that most VAT systems distinguish between individuals and firms with only the later subject to the VAT. This makes sense and probably preserves my secondary idea of not unnecessarily discouraging the rich from "taxing" themselves through art.

P.S. Also, see this interesting report.



The Trouble with Art Museums

A few years ago I had the pleasure of visiting the Barnes Foundation art museum in Philadelphia. It is extraordinary, and I highly recommend it. The history of this art collection and why it is where it is today is very interesting. And that's where the trouble begins.

Supposedly, the art collection is worth $25 billion! Wow, that's a big number. If your first thought upon hearing that is, "how would we know?", you are thinking like an economist.

If the museum burned to the ground losing all the art inside, would the loss to society actually be $25 billion? How would we know? Without robust and recent market transactions, we wouldn't. Yet that is just the beginning of the problem. 

The reason the art is in its current location is because in the 1990s the foundation was in financial trouble. One solution was to take some of the art on a world tour and then move the collection, the Barnes, to Philly. Maybe I'm just naïve or cynical, but things worth $25 billion aren't that hard to cash flow normally. 

The foundation raised about $150 million dollars to relocate a few miles into Philly from Merion Station, PA building a new facility and presumably using the remainder as an on-going endowment for maintenance. While there are many minor points to reconcile in all the legal and financial battle involving the move, there is a bigger point I'd like to make. Admission to the museum is at most $25. What's more, capacity is very limited--it is a relatively small space with limited hours of operation. At $25 billion in value why isn't there a line out the door and/or a very high-priced secondary market for tickets? Seems like a steal. Well, it is part of the art market; therefore, it probably is . . . just not in the way my questions would indicate. 

The art world is not designed--no system this involved ever is. It is the result of an emergent evolution. The spontaneous order that created it and drives it is not entirely or even largely benign. It is the result of a series of intentional manipulations and unintentional consequences from private, selfish, and in some cases socially-negative ulterior motives. Art museums aren't about public access to refined artistic culture. 

Allow me to begin the disillusionment with an excellent EconTalk, Michael O'Hare on Art Museums. The most forbidden thing an art museum can do is sell any of its collection. Even if it means some art will never be seen, it is somehow better that it stay in cold storage than be sullied by commercial activity. For the short version on why, see this episode of Adam Ruins Everything. For the longer version, see this article from Quartz

Value is like water--it seeks its own level. Interferences with this natural process can be expensive and often are resource destructive. One version of this is politically powerful people, who are otherwise unwilling to put their money where their advocacy mouth is, working to stop market transactions. Consider also cases like when the city of Detroit's bankruptcy reorganization had creditors pursuing the collection at the Detroit Institute of Art

This is the kind of example where preventing "priceless" collections from being sold or commercialized might mean very hard choices for governments facing enormous pension liabilities. If those assets are off limits, there are two big problems. The first is how the liability problem gets solved once a great option (selling off valuable assets) is removed. The second is how well can that same entity be a good steward for the art. They have already gotten themselves into financial difficulty, and now they are additionally constrained by having to at least store the art. 

I enjoy art museums generally and some in particular. The idea of art museums is something I support in theory, but in practice it has become rather fraught with very undesirable aspects. The pretentiousness is not just a bug. It is a feature of a bigger bug. Art museums are about exclusion despite the conventional marketing otherwise. Perhaps they are simply fancy, tax-favored institutions for hoarders? Malcolm Gladwell's Revisionist History makes the case in two episodes

Speaking of taxes, that is yet another troubling aspect of the art market with museums playing a key role. I'll explore that in the next post



Friday, February 5, 2021

One-Two Punch, or . . .

. . . How to go down for the count.



Let's make a boxing analogy for "appropriate" humor: Know your sparring partner; know when it is the real match; there are rules (no below the belt, but the belt moves); stay in your weight class. 

I post this in reflection upon the recent blow up of a comedic tweet by Niskanen Center's now former vice president Will Wilkinson. 

As one who has always been very comedic, I both identify with and fear hitting below the belt. I’ve done it, and I have fortunately always been forgiven when it mattered. I also identify with and fear what got Wilkinson into trouble--not knowing when it was a real match. In other words making a joke in the "wrong" way at the "wrong" time. I use the scare quotes because I've never been big on this concept. It is "wrong" because you the audience (intended audience or accidental audience) didn't like it. 

I am ambivalent on the idea that an honest attempt at humor is wrong. I don't want to offend people, but I know it will have to happen from time to time as both a risk of comedy (and serious argument) and because everyone at one time or another is overly sensitive (or hears things the wrong way). In truth I agree with Scott Sumner that there are no offensive jokes. So my views are simultaneously: I am sorry you have taken offense and Too. Fucking. Bad. 

To one degree or another grown-up comedy (not necessarily “adult” but certainly mature in the sense of developed and sophisticated) makes the audience uncomfortable. The other elements of comedy (surprise and irreverence) are at play here too in that comedy has to push boundaries or it is too childish to be considered “grown up”.

Time and place are tricky, though. Elon Musk has been very active on Twitter either joking or promoting (or both) the GameStop, et al. and Dogecoin trades. Is he humorously trolling? Should he be? 

This is a thorny issue. He uses Twitter to promote serious ideas including his public company. People look to him as an authority figure. We know we lose context and tone in email. That shortcoming is often taken too eleven when on Twitter. Maybe what he is doing is going over my head, and I should see rule #3 below. Regardless, he is an adult speaking to adults . . . yes, rule #3 indeed.

A healthy society allows mistakes. Actually it embraces them knowing they are a cost of progress. If a comedian cannot bomb, he cannot ever entertain. 

Here are two rules we as the audience should follow:
  1. Assume good intent.
  2. Accept sincere apology.
  3. When offended, get over it. - if for no other reason, your own happiness
So back to Wilkinson. His comedic attempt was ruled a mistake by Niskanen who didn't accept apology. We don't live in a world where my rules above are followed. Rather we live in what Arnold Kling calls a Zero Tolerance Culture. And as Jason Brennan perfectly points out, this is a cancel culture with glaring hypocrisy. 

Knock knock
Who's there?
Boo
Boo who?
Why you cryin'? It's just a joke.

Wednesday, February 3, 2021

A rose by any other name...

Partial list of things as they really are (these are not all original to me):
  • Universities are hedge funds that run research labs and have football teams. 
  • Fast food companies are real estate firms with kitchens. 
  • Democracies are insurance companies with armies. 
  • Public (government) schools are unions that run day care centers. 
  • Police departments are unions that run protection rackets. 
  • Banks are time-travel machines for assets that tax uncertainty. 
  • Home Ownership is tax-sheltered/favored investment masquerading as industrious virtue. 
  • Public libraries are intellectual social status symbols with warehouses. 
  • Churches are mutual-aid societies that offer moral guidance and tribal solidarity. 






Thursday, January 28, 2021

All Aboard!

Apropos of nothing in particular . . . 

Invest with the perspective that we are just passengers on trains. 

We are not the engineer. 

We are not a little kid laying out a model train set. 

We can choose the trains we board and the ones we avoid. 

Some are faster. Some have better safety. Some have more amenities. 

None are perfect, but some combinations are much better at getting us to our destination, and, importantly, we do not all have the same destinations. 

We cannot dictate the trains' schedules, speed, route, etc. 

We just have to accept what the trains before us are offering and decide among that option set--not an ideal, imagined one. 

We do not have to take the most popular trains if they aren't actually the right fit for us. 

Constraints are individual just like goals. For example, even though we both want to go from Los Angeles to Chicago, the Silver Streak may be best for you but not for me because I have a lot more luggage to transport and that train has limited capacity. 

It can be good to have a travel agent to help plan our trip, and a great conductor can help guide the journey. But it is us who have to decide, board, and endure the journey including if the train breaks down forcing us to find alternative options.