Showing posts sorted by relevance for query trump predictions. Sort by date Show all posts
Showing posts sorted by relevance for query trump predictions. Sort by date Show all posts

Saturday, June 20, 2020

What I Got Wrong

And what I got right... an analysis of my Trump predictions. 

I made a list of predictions at the very beginning of the Trump presidency. One year later I did an early analysis of them. Now that we are nearing the end of the first (only?) term, I thought I'd look back to see how my predictions fared. 

I was optimistic in three areas: taxes, regulation, and presidential power & authority

On taxes I was doubly right on the surface--the Congress was the key and they have gotten better. Specifically, we got the corporate tax reductions/improvements that Obama wanted but couldn't negotiate along with improvements for deductions (standard deduction increased making future itemized deduction eliminations more likely and SALT was limited making state and local taxes more burdensome thus more resented). Now, one could very correctly counter that the HUGE increases in fiscal spending fully supported by Trump during and especially before the pandemic are simply future tax burdens. This mitigates strongly against my prediction. 

On regulation I was mostly right if not a bit underestimating of the chances of progress

On presidential power & authority I was mostly wrong so far, but that prediction is a long-game idea that remains to be seen. Perhaps we have indeed grown and are continuing to grow more skeptical and reluctant on this front. Still, I see a conservative base that believes ever more in the legitimacy of strong central power and the left is still AWOL on the issue. I get the strong impression that the left still clings to the nonsensical unicorn theory of "if we just get the right person in charge, all will be well . . ."

The recent pandemic and subsequent police abuse protests stand as testament as the left criticized Trump for not being enough of a strongman and then the right rallied around the police state. And consider the reverse of the optimistic take. What if in 50 or so years people look back at things Trump said and somewhat of how he acted and take it way too seriously--like serious at all? For instance when he says I have absolute power, what if people in the future look back to that as a serious proclamation that a president claimed and wasn’t completely challenged on? 

On the initially overlooked judicial and U.S. attorney appointments I was right one-year in to be optimistic overall. Many have been very good to great like the high-profile case of Gorsuch. 

I was pessimistic in ten areas: tradeimmigrationnationalismwardrug policygovernment meddlingfree speechinternet freedomsurveillance state, and gender issues/tolerance

On trade (it took a while) and immigration I was very pessimistic and right on the mark. Being right about these and others is so very depressing.

On nationalism, gender issues/tolerance, and add to that the missing elements of social division and discord (especially the racial element) I was unfortunately wrongly not pessimistic enough--to be clear I would ideally have been wrong for being too pessimistic. He is a mass polluter in this realm. I fear this has knock-on effects for future "outsider" presidential candidates in that we will overvalue pleasantry over policy by mislabeling those who question the establishment as yet another divisive person.

On wardrug policy, and government meddling my initial (one-year in) analysis was that I had been not pessimistic enough. I think the following years have proved me more correct originally as the wrong positions of the Trump administration softened. 

On free speech, internet freedom, and surveillance state we have the reverse case where matters over gotten worse as of late. My predictions are moving from appropriately pessimistic to another unfortunate case of not pessimistic enough. We'll see...

I'll leave it to the reader to assess how my initial overall prediction has held up:
The Trump years (and they will be years despite the hope of so many for impeachment or that he would divorce America to be president of some younger Eastern European country) might be an odd combination of dramatic progress and colossal retreat. I think the eventual decisive factor will be how strong and righteous Congress is. I believe the case for optimism has a greater magnitude than the case for pessimism, but the negative sensitivity is high--meaning prospects are skewed with more downside risk than upside potential while the balance is still to the upside. 
For my grade on the last part (the balance or risk being to the upside), stay tuned for a provocative post comparing our presidential candidates. 

Sunday, January 24, 2021

The Time of Biden

Now that all the attempts at election stealing are over I feel compelled to put down in writing some predictions about Biden's presidency. Call it political fatigue from the 400 years of the Trump Presidency, but it is hard for me to muster much energy to do this. Still, here goes . . .

Optimism:

There are two kinds of optimism in the case of Biden--relative and absolute. The relative is in regard to the Trump alternative and perhaps the Biden of politics past. The absolute is more genuine if not also more wishful. 

Trade - This one is quite positive even though it is strongly of the relative variety. Biden was never great on trade and many times poor. Still this has changed as he shifts in the political winds. He both wants/needs to be not Trump and the political base is different for Democrats today than it was when he first ran for president over three decades ago. See my Five Tribes theory for background, but Labor is not the Democratic lock that it was in the past. Just a reset to pre-2018 (actual policy) and pre-2016 (rhetoric) would be a great improvement. 

Immigration - There is a strong chance that Biden will be very good on immigration. The development of Democrats getting better on immigration has been building for some time having only accelerated under Trump. So in this case we have relative and absolute improvement opportunities. 

Drug Policy - My optimism is tempered here, but it is present in an absolute sense. At the very least we should get a more hands-off, non-escalating war on drugs policy. This is a BIG improvement from what we would have expected from a 1990s Biden. My baseline expectation is eventual of decriminalization/legalization of marijuana within the next few years.  

Presidential Prestige - I am optimistic that the tone and style of the office will now be back to a civilized place--very much a relative optimism. The office of the U.S. President should be occupied by a person easily described as a gentleman or lady. Trump never fit this description, and his final days were the icing on the top. Yes, I want that same office to be greatly diminished in terms of power and worship. My hope was Trump would deliver the diminishment without going Game of Thrones. Largely my fear of getting the reverse was realized. 

Pessimism:

Unlike the optimism analysis, the pessimism comes basically only in the absolute variety. It is also the areas I tend to be most confident, unfortunately. 

Judicial Appointments - This one is not as pessimistic as one might assume. I don't want judges from the right or the left--that is a silly concept. I want judges that think critically and consistently demonstrating good application of the Law. Certainly I expect Biden's typical nominee will be less desirable than was the typical Trump nominee from my perspective. However, the best judges are impartial and well reasoned, and those include very many Biden will nominate. 

Regulation - The Trump administration was flat out good on regulation compared to any recent president (probably including Reagan!). He didn't as much shrink, though, as he reduced or stopped the growth of the regulatory state. Biden will reverse this trend. There is one area where Trump was certainly bad and Biden will likely continue this just in a different flavor--industrial policy/meddling with individual firms and industries. 

Taxes - Many people are rightfully worried about this for mostly wrong reasons. They don't want their own tax rates to go up. Ignoring the fiscal hypocrisy of this given the spending policies these same people typically demand, it is not a major problem that individual income tax rates (especially at the high end) are likely to increase. What people should be worried about is corporate tax rates increasing and to a lesser degree capital gains rates increasing. These are both much more destructive forms of taxes as they are taxing the creation of resources rather than the use of resources. Additionally, the restoration of the SALT deduction and the reduction in the standard deduction are also bad potential outcomes of coming tax policy.

War - I am hopeful that this ends up being an area like others mentioned where Biden today is different than he has been over the last 40 years. Despite this hope, you'll notice in which category I have placed it. 

Woke Politics and Policies - Think of this item as the inverse of Trump's nationalism. The risks are similar including divisive policies and rhetoric as well as censorship and ostracization. 

Spending - Your first thought should be, "Pessimistic on spending? Have you seen 2020?" True, but in only that limited and aberrational case is the relative comparison optimistic for Biden. The ratchet works in one direction generally, and even the possibility of a republican midterm sweep doesn't leave me optimistic.

Presidential Power & Authority - Here is the other side of presidential prestige from above. Every president in the last 20+ years has looked at the prior administrations' advancement of executive orders and general authority and said simply, "Hold my beer". If we only had another branch of government designed to be the strongest branch and willing to hold presidents accountable and within the bounds of their legal authority . . . 

Overall: 

The Biden years will hopefully be a time of surprise at how good some things are, not so bad other things are, and tolerably bad the balance is. This is how I now view the Clinton presidency. All of it is quite relative of course. Hope aside, I am more optimistic than I would have expected being faced with a Biden administration. Still the pessimistic angles are acute and meaningful. 


P.S. What about COVID-19 and the pandemic? While I expect a lot of theater to emerge and a rewriting of some history in favor of the current winners, the substantive part of this large issue is basically settled. In this way it doesn't matter much who won this election. Most of the decisions to be made are in the same incapable hands of FDA and other government officials along with the capable hands of private firms, organizations, and individuals. And in many ways the die is cast. The trajectory of the virus is set--declining regardless of what comes next but with a trajectory that very much can change depending on policy and actions taken. This is true and basically the same under Biden or Trump and even without vaccines. Vaccines are just a wonderful accelerator of the progress against the virus, which very much means fewer people suffering and dying. 



Monday, January 15, 2018

Trump - One Year In

About a year ago, I posted on Trump looking at what I saw as the reasons to be optimistic and pessimistic. Let's revisit that now that we have a year under our belt.

Overall, I think my predictions were good with some notable variance in a couple areas. Of course, I was vague enough to prevent too much inaccuracy (or accuracy) by design. Here are the areas that standout to me with a look back at my prior comments.

The Good

  • Taxes - this one was somewhat surprisingly good, blemishes and all. [remember with all of these we are grading on a curve] Much like Chance, Trump only gets credit for being there to sign the bill. 
  • Regulation - 1.25 steps forward with 1 step back is still progress. Congress and Trump completely failed to reform much less repeal the ACA (Obamacare). I have low and ebbing faith Dodd-Frank, et al. will be meaningfully changed. Still, there are success stories, and slowing the rate of growth is itself improvement
  • Judicial Appointments - I somehow missed mentioning this previously, and it would have been in the optimism bucket. This one has lived up to realistic (not full libertarian) hope. 
  • Lost Respect for the Sanctity of the Office - yes this is a feature--let the scales fall from your eyes, the emperors have never been well dressed. But . . .
The Bad
  • Presidential Power & Authority - we may be chipping away at the Cult of the Presidency, but I don't yet see the groundswell from the left or the center that I might hope for. They are much to tied up in the emotion of this particular president's actions and words.
  • Immigration - unlike in trade (below), Trump's actions have matched his rhetoric in this area. Here it looks to be an on-going real fight and will perhaps be the most lasting and impactful negative consequence of Trump.
  • Trade - as I mentioned, his administration is a lot of (bad) talk on this, but so far little action. Still, he has many opportunities to make good on his very bad desires.
  • War - I was not pessimistic enough on this. Drone attacks have increased under Trump as the list of places we are at war have grown. The U.S. government with the help of a complicit even if blissfully ignorant populace continues to be wrongfully aggressive. Include in this the surveillance state, but I am fairly certain this one is sadly nonpartisan. 
  • Drug Policy - yep, unfortunately I nailed this one.
The Ugly
  • Hatred, Nationalism, Bullying, etc. - I was not as pessimistic as I should have been in this general area. The downside of losing the always undue respect for the U.S. presidency is that it took this buffoon to get us there. He is at best sloppy and inconsiderate, at worst hateful and demagogic. If you need links on this topic to prove the point, you have been in a coma for 12+ months.
On balance there are reasons to claim "silver linings" and reasons to claim "not so fast".

PS. For a better analysis of the economic policy results of Trump's first year, read Scott Sumner's take