The Wisdom of a Small Child

From about the time he was five years old, my son Max had four favorite sayings/shouted responses: 

1. IT DOESN'T MATTER!
2. QUIT RUSHING ME!
3. QUIT WASTING MY TIME!
4. IS THAT REALLY NECESSARY? 

He always has said them emphatically and authoritatively. And he doesn't back down. 

I have had this post in my notes for years (he will soon be 11). Although I am late in posting it, it remains true and relevant today. He has added to his repertoire: 

• No, Dad, that's not how it works.
• Look, just let me do it.

He has a point in each case that I really can't argue with. In fact, these are probably phrases we should all employ more often, if only with a bit less volume. Let me explain.

It doesn't matter - this is true for most everything. I don't mean so in an extreme philosophical sense of if you take a long enough perspective, it all fades into meaninglessness. But I do mean that a longer-run and bigger-picture perspective is the right approach. Most things in the here and now just don't matter too much. Go with the flow of life. If almost every problem is essentially small, the proper response is generally essentially modest. 

Quit rushing me - this relates to most things not mattering. What is the hurry? Rushing introduces added risk of error. How often are we neglecting this cost for some illusory goal of doing it faster? If it matters, it can wait. If it needs haste, speed will naturally follow. Perhaps we who realize a particular need for urgency need to inform others who are unaware or impress upon ourselves this demand, but the slip from alert to panic is a quick one. Almost nothing is actually on fire.

Quit wasting my time - time is our most precious asset. In a sense it is essentially the true unit of account. How much time a given action or inaction requires is a very underappreciated cost. And we only vaguely are aware of the value of our own time much less the value of someone else's. Our tolerance for wasting another's time or another wasting our own should be quite low. Our tolerance and appreciation for someone guarding preciously their own time should be quite high. Be polite, but don't let time be wasted.

Is that really necessary? - If it doesn't matter (usually to a large degree) and we shouldn't be rushed and we should not waste time, this question becomes imperative. So many times were these phrases shouted back to me as I struggled to get him to put his shoes on (among so many other similar trivialities). Getting the shoes on was necessary but . . . it kinda didn't matter, I didn't need to rush him, yelling at him do it rather than helping him wasted everyone's time, and none of that was really necessary.

No, Dad, that's not how it works & Look, just let me do it - I'm glad he is outspoken and very eager to try things for himself. He will make many, MANY mistakes in this journey. But I owe it to him to allow him this dignity. 

Paul Graham offers more (better) wisdom.

Partial List of Wisdom From Classic TV

"Just the facts ma’am" - Removing emotions and focusing on facts is critical when gathering initial information; like in researching this to relearn that he never actually said it.

"What'chu talkin' 'bout, Willis?" - Question authority, question received wisdom, question those who would sell you a bill of goods.

Father Knows Best - There is wisdom to be learned from one's elders, but also (as the show's ironic title continually demonstrated) the elders are always learning too as they very often do not have all the answers (especially in this case the father who didn't always know best).

"Nip it in the bud!" - Overzealous policing is best controlled by judicious, thoughtful leadership and a soft touch.

"Kiss my grits!" - Stand up for your rights and your point of view.

"Hey, Alex" - Wisdom and beauty come in surprising packages.

"Gilligan!" - Money and an impossible amount of stuff is no match for The Ultimate Resource.

"Heyyyy" - Sometimes it is best to say little, be cool, and walk away. Also, it is both desirable to be able to and to avoid jumping the shark.

Some Secrets to Investing Success

To be a "successful" investor, you've got to start by defining success. It is different for just about everyone. Two investors with nearly identical demographics including age, lifestyle, and net worth can have significantly different financial goals. And financial goals are almost never determined along one dimension. Thinking they are is a formula for a typical 80s movie, and most were bad depictions of how investing works even though they have classic status.

Here are five hot tips to get you a leg up on the competition:

1. Get a head start. As a Sooner I can tell you there is no substitute.

Imagine you, a very conservative person, begin investing at age 25 by putting $100 per month into a very safe bond index fund (perhaps BND). You do this for 20 years (240 months straight). Let's suppose this bond investment grows at an average rate of 3.5% per year. Although you put in $24,000 of your own money, that money is growing on average as it is invested. So after the 240th month you would expect to have about $34,576 of which about $10,576 is the growth of the investment. At that point when you are 45 years old you stop saving additional money and just let the bond investment grow for the next 20 years or until you are 65 years old (40 total years of investing). 

Now imagine me, a rather aggressive person the same age as you, waits until you are done putting money in to begin my own investing. At that point, 20 years after you started, I start investing $100 per month and I don't stop adding $100 per month until age 65 (20 years of adding to my investment just like you) and I invest in a stock fund with more risk and return potential (perhaps VT). Let's suppose this stock investment grows at an average rate of 8% per year--more than double your investment return per year. After 240 months I've added just as much as you, $24,000 of my own money. I've also enjoyed a higher rate of return on those investments. But do I have as much in total? In this case, no.

At age 65 you have over $68,798 while I have only $57,266. And if you would have chosen the stock fund instead of the bond fund keeping the other assumptions the same, you would have over $266,914--being early is an amazing difference!

See the chart below and notice how starting early allowed you to be invested more conservatively.

Here is a short video showing the same principles at work.

2. Protect against the downside first and foremost.

It is mathematically impossible to save enough and earn enough on that savings to cover spending more than you have. Try it and see. If you save $20 million and earn a return of $40 million on it (a 200% rate of return!), you still cannot spend $61 million. Even if you borrow against the $60 million to try and get an additional $1 million, you have to come up with that $1 million to pay back the loan. Spending prudence should seem self evident. So too should investing prudence because you mathematically cannot spend investment earnings you do not achieve. 

If I put all my investment (eggs) into one stock or bond (basket so to speak) and that stock or bond goes broke, my investment is gone. If I put all my investment into two stocks or bonds and one of those goes broke while the other is fine, I have only lost half of my investment. Repeat this logic for more and more individual investments, and you will eventually get to a point of diversification where the impact of picking a complete lemon (stock or bond that goes to zero) is immaterial to you. That should be a goal for most investors.

The entire stock or bond market basically cannot go to zero. If it does, you got bigger problems than your IRA balance like the colossal asteroid that must have struck the Earth. In fact, the history of economic growth has been a reliable (eventual) pattern of higher highs and higher lows. Diversification is your first best risk reducer against the threat of ruin.

3. Grab the right rate of return.

It is all about beta not alpha. Beta is the fancy way of saying give me the market's performance. Alpha is the fancy way of saying give me something different (hopefully better) than the market's performance. Beta is passive investing, boring, dull, easy, anybody can do it. Alpha is the sexy stuff. Alpha is the smart money, the guys zigging when the panicked sheep are zagging. At least, that is the story so many like to tell.

The fact is overwhelmingly most professional money managers do not beat their benchmark. Let that sink in--the guys paid millions of dollars to add value for investors by being better than their benchmark are most of the time subtracting value. Investors are paying a fee to get a lower rate of return than they could otherwise.

The key decision for most investors is not "can I beat the market?" but rather "can I be the market, and what market do I want to be?" Remember, every investor is different--different risk tolerances, different various goals, different unique circumstances and biases, etc. Getting the right mixture of various investments (AKA, asset allocation) is the first best method of achieving your financial goals--notice how this works hand in glove with diversification. The asset allocation decision will almost exclusively determine the risk/return path your investments travel making other decisions small contributors to performance.

4. Look for the rewards of liquidity and transparency.

Listen to Jason Zweig among so many others. Don’t trust hedge funds. Understand that private equity = public equity minus liquidity minus transparency plus fees plus leverage. As Cliff Asness points out, let others accept a discount for illiquidity (when a premium would be the theoretical demand of investors). You want access to your money while invested in assets and processes you can understand, fully benchmark against, and truly see the value of. 

5. Resist temptation and envy--the key drivers of FOMO.

This one has many short sub components (here are a few):

• Don't time the market -- This is an impossible task and anyone who tells you different is a liar or a fool.
• Therefore, stay invested and on your long-term plan -- Uncle Freddy very likely doesn't know something you should be emulating. This time (any time) is very probably NOT a time to go to (some different asset allocation as compared to your long-term plan).
• You will never be significantly invested in the best performing single investment because of rules 2 & 3 above -- You don't want the risk that has only luck as its investment thesis.

The bottom line of this is successful investing generally is simpler, cheaper, and duller than advertised.

Like A Boss: Universal Rules For Looking The Part

Robin Hanson & Kevin Simler may understand this... 

Borrowing heavily from my memory of an article I believe I read in Fortune ("acting like a CEO" or something) about 15+ years ago. You can take this as advice, observation, criticism, or any way you like. I am not singling anyone out in particular, but if the shoe fits...

1. Laughter is poor form. Shows a lack of control. At best smirk with a "hmph", which could be mistaken for a throat clear. If a slight chortle escapes, shake your head as if to deny the appropriateness of it. Any accidental laughter should leave witnesses unsure if you thought it humorous or thought it humorous that one would think it to be humorous. Never, NEVER giggle.
2. Avoid any hint of sarcasm and give no indication of any appreciation or even perception for it. 
3. Refrain from eating sweets in front of others. Act as if to show the slightest attraction to a dessert is to yield to all childish pleasures and reveal a total lack of control. 
4. Your enthusiasm is just matter-of-fact support for those things self-evidently worthy of praise. You are a charter member of Team Winners. If "they" fail to succeed, it is simply due to some lack of confidence they shamefully did not possess--a concern you had all along. 
5. In circumstances when normal humans are overcome with visible worry or anxiousness, you are overcome with calm. Emotions are for the weak. You are a stoic. 
6. If asked to give a solution to a hypothetical problem, instead of a direct answer just reflect poignantly on how you would build a process for avoiding such dilemmas from the start. If asked to give advice, challenge the presumptions behind the question. Never waste an opportunity to obfuscate and go meta.
7. Never bring your own copies of materials to a meeting. If it is important enough for you to need it, it is important enough that someone will provide it. 
8. Play dumb if you can use that to your advantage to put an adversary or underling on edge. 

Partial List of (additional) Low-Hanging Public Policy Fruit

These are addenda to The Big Five. 

While The Big Five were largely federal issues, these (2/3) are largely state and local issues.

• Sunset most if not all zoning laws
• End most if not all occupational licensure (don't miss the video)
• Allow (subsidizing for the poor) fully portable, catastrophic health insurance 

They are based on simple principles allowing for straightforward application if we would be so bold. Alas, the incumbent, vested interests would resist with every fiber of their selfish being. 

But I for one will keep fighting the good fight with hope that reason and justice will prevail. 

What I'm Listening To (Podcast Rundown) circa August 2019

This is an update to my prior list of podcasts I am currently listening to. No comments this time, but after listing my favorites, I will group them into those I listen to every episode and those I listen to occasionally (alphabetical after the favorites). Just because one is listed under "occasional" doesn't mean you should dismiss it--there are gold in some of those occasions.

Thinking about the list today I notice that there have been many that have come and gone--some were just tried on for size and others were one-time staples. I think this has been healthy turnover.

Every Episode (favorites):

EconTalk

Conversations with Tyler

Reason Podcast

The Fifth Column - Analysis, Commentary, Sedition

Free Thoughts

The Fribrary Podcast

Libertarian

The Way I Heard It with Mike Rowe

Every Episode (others):

30 Animals That Made Us Smarter

50 Things That Made the Modern Economy

99% Invisible

a16z

Against the Rules with Michael Lewis

Akimbo: A Podcast from Seth Godin

Animal Spirits Podcast

Building Tomorrow

Capitalisn't

Cato Daily Podcast

Conviction

Crimetown

Dan Carlin's Hardcore History

Dan Carlin's Hardcore History: Addendum

Darknet Diaries

Economics Detective Radio

Every Little Thing

Freakonomics Radio

Grammar Girl Quick and Dirty Tips for Better Writing

It's Not What It Seems with Doug Vigliotti

Kibbe on Liberty

Macro Musings with David Beckworth

Made You Think

Make No Law: The First Amendment Podcast

Mercatus Policy Download

MinuteEarth

More or Less: Behind the Stats

Oklahoma Sooners Postgame

Oklahoma Sooners Unofficial 40

Pessimists Archive Podcast

Rationally Speaking

Reason Video

Revisionist History

Science Salon

Science Vs

So to Speak: The Free Speech Podcast

The Anthropocene Reviewed

The Curious Investor

The Emergent Order Podcast

The Long View

The Political Orphanage

The Remnant with Jonah Goldberg

The Subgame Perfect Podcast

Words & Numbers

Occasional:

80,000 Hours Podcast with Rob Wiblin

Bob Murphy Show

Cato Event Podcast

Conan O’Brien Needs A Friend

Econ Journal Watch - EJW Audio

Fictional

FYI - For Your Innovation

Making Sense with Sam Harris

Myths and Legends

North Star Podcast

On Being with Krista Tippett

Part Of The Problem

Penn's Sunday School

Reply All

Sean Carroll's Mindscape: Science, Society, Philosophy, Culture, Arts, and Ideas

The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish

The Neoliberal Podcast

The Not Unreasonable Podcast

The Rubin Report

The Tim Ferriss Show

Venture Stories

Ethical Free Riding

Partial list of ethical ways to free ride (enjoy positive externalities). Free riding is generally economically destructive and potentially unethical. For example, if paying for national defense is voluntary, the risk is that we get too little of it as many people attempt to free ride off of the benefit of everyone else paying for it. (Note: don't too easily accept this theoretical argument when applied to so many so called "public goods" such as roads and lighthouses.) While free riding off of others is unethical when you are taking resources from others, there are many examples of free riding that are ethically fine:

1. Mayberry - Because so many people (especially helpful if it is your neighbors) are so very active in their home security (setting burglar alarms, using Ring doorbells, etc.), you don’t have to be. You just need for your place to look like the kind of place that does.
2. Speed Racer - Because everyone wants to drive so fast, you can go above the speed limit safely and stay behind the fastest drivers who can run interference with Smokey. Defensively keeping pace with traffic is the safer way to drive. 
3. Quantum Leap - Be on time and keep your promises and you will exceed most people's general expectations. This is basically just capitalizing on other people’s inability to do the right thing. 
4. Gotham - The benefits of big-city life are great for both individuals as well as society at large. Not only are you doing good by the environment living in a big city, you are doing well for yourself in many ways. For you this means access to amenities that are less expensive and of greater scope in type and richness.
5. Quiz Show - When information is expensive, trust the wisdom of the crowd. Visiting a new town and looking for a good restaurant? Trust the one that is popular with locals--all the more so if it has other impediments to overcome like a poor location. 
6. The Matrix - There is basically no excuse for doing something new or difficult by winging it from scratch. Research and learn using Google searches, YouTube, blogs, et al. Somebody somewhere has been there, failed, corrected, and left it all waiting for you to discover. 

Don't Let the Ideal Be the Enemy of Improvement

This recent Scott Sumner post got me thinking about a truism I like to follow: 

Don't let the ideal be the enemy of improvement--my take on don't let the perfect be the enemy of the good. 

Perfect is overrated. While I might be a libertarian idealist at heart, I have always striven to be a directionalist rather than a destinationist. And I certainly don't want to fall victim to the Unicorn Fallacy.

Consider The Big Five and reasonable milestones of progress to be aiming for.

• Drug prohibition - Marijuana tolerance is gaining. This is largely good (movement in the right direction). However, it probably will have unintended byproducts like legalization = authority endorsement leading to overuse as well as even stronger resistance to decriminalization, legalization, and tolerance for other illicit products (cocaine, heroin, LSD, etc.) and services (sex work, price "gouging", etc.). Reasonable near-term aspiration: Federal action decriminalizing if not descheduling marijuana despite the before-mentioned byproducts.
• Education - School choice is on a gradual but tepid rise. Reasonable near-term aspiration: A popular civil-rights figure strongly advocating for a voucher or charter school experiment in a major inner city. 
• Immigration - These seem to be dark times. Yet I see two aspects of optimism. First, Democrat rhetoric is improving as they attempt to draw a distinction from Trump--this isn't faith in Democrat dogma but rather faith they will paint themselves into a good corner. Second, Republicans will likely need to soften the stance Trump has defined lest they risk losing demographically--this isn't faith in Republican virtue but rather faith in their ability to see a self-serving means to an ends. Reasonable near-term aspiration: A compromise solution to allow much-greater levels of H1B visas and higher levels of "desirable" immigrants (where desirability comes from greater restrictions on immigrant access to benefits or sponsorship by entities such as employers or charities or sanctuary cities).
• Taxation - The biggest recent improvement has been in this category with the Tax Cut and Jobs Act of 2017. By far the two benefits of this mixed bag of tax changes were the reduction in the corporate tax rate and the increase in the standard deduction. The latter should enable future tax simplifications such as removing deductions and allowances much easier to accomplish. Reasonable near-term aspiration: Increases in tax-deferred savings limits.
• War - This is the most stagnant category. Across the globe we are still explicitly overtly at war (Afghanistan, Iraq, et al.), implicitly covertly at war (Yemen, Syria, et al.), and potentially at war (Iran, North Korea, et al.). Reasonable near-term aspiration: A critical mass within the electorate of direct opposition to each of these three types of bellicosity. Even if it is a selfishly-derived opposition (stop wasting our resources on lost causes, don't fight other people's battles, regroup in case we need to fight a big enemy), it would be helpful. 

The Big Five - Choose Your Battles Wisely

Here is the low-hanging fruit of public policy. 90% solutions (improvements) on these issues are several orders of magnitude more important than 99% solutions on a thousand others. They are in no particular order (alphabetical):

• Drug Prohibition (end it--allow adults to make their own choices)
• Education (privatize it--give the government an ever-smaller role)
• Immigration (open it up--allow people to freely move and freely interact with other people)
• Taxation (simplify and redirect it--efficiently tax the use of resources not the creation of resources)
• War (move away from it--make postures less bellicose and violence less of an option). 

Everything else at this point is details. They are interesting details, yes. For example, the recent interesting, generally important, but marginally insignificant issue of the legality of blackmail. [note: I side with Robin Hanson, but I am sympathetic to and willing to live with the counter case.]

How should you vote? I would suggest an equal weighting of these Big Five policy stances as the guiding framework. While this recommendation is a prescription to be a few/select-issue voter, that should be considered a feature not a bug. Similarly straight-party voting isn't necessarily morally or intellectually inferior to a strategy of "voting the person not the party". By what criteria is a candidate-by-candidate voter deciding? Why should they believe they are properly weighting the issues, correctly identifying the stance on the issues, and accurately evaluating each candidate's position and expected actions on the issues? Using a few benchmark issues as the litmus test keeps the focus properly on that which meaningfully matters and gives the best hope the rationally ignorant voter is making a good decision.

More importantly, how should you advocate (much more bang for the buck)? Let's say solutions are just as simple as awareness (I know it is not, but it is a useful analogy). Spend about 95% one's advocacy efforts roughly evenly on the Big Five: ending the drug war, privatizing education, opening immigration, reforming taxation, and reducing war. The remaining 5% goes for everything else. My own behavior has not adhered to this framework, but since I am just now formally defining this, I grant myself pardon. Will I follow this going forward? All I can do is try.

What's Ahead for Stocks - precise predictions

Seriously?!? You clicked thinking you'd find some nonsense about, say, money about to [do something in regards to] "the sidelines", or perhaps you wanted to know how many technical indicators were crossing arbitrary thresholds. Oh, maybe it was an insider's take on smart money that you sought. But what would make the traders behind it "smart", how would I know what "they" (in unison? all on the same side of each trade?) were doing, and if I did, why would I share it?

Markets recalibrate constantly to new information. They also recalibrate constantly to changes in the weighted-average risk appetite of market participants. Did something change over the past couple of weeks? Of course, there is always something changing. But what?...

John Cochrane offers a great post for that question. Short answer: nobody knows. It cannot be known.

But what if we're in a bubble? Yeah, about that... Scott Sumner has two recent posts on that topic and more. He suggests we not be so sure about labeling past prices bubbles and lower the status of pessimists (I agree). He also suggests we should not offer explanations for events for which we are ignorant (I agree).

The standard advice is still the best advice:

• Set your asset allocation as appropriate for best achieving your goals and personal constraints.
• Get broad (very broad) diversification . . . cheaply.*
• Go for lunch.
• Check from time to time (not minute to minute) readjusting if needed to more appropriately fit your current goals.

*There are LOTS of investment options out there. The links show just two--albeit, two very good ones for achieving broad, cheap diversification. Also, maybe this.

My 12 Rules for Life

Jordan Peterson started this. Many have been following. I like Tyler Cowen's, Megan McArdle's, and Arnold Kling's among others.

Here is my contribution to the cause:

1. Try more things--reach out for more variety along all relevant dimensions.
2. Quit more things.
3. Read more (quantity, quality, and variety). 
4. Practice ‘Hell Yeah!’ Or ‘No’.
5. Listen with intention. 
6. Smile more. 
7. Choose honesty, demand the same, and respect when you get it. 
8. Pursue what is being rewarded but always to the satisfaction of high ethical standards. 
9. Trust your gut instincts. 
10. Ask your spouse, children, immediate boss, and parents for permission. For everyone else, ask forgiveness. 
11. Change your mind. Distance yourself from those who won’t. 
12. Forgive and move on. 

Highly Linkable - Food and Health Myths

As you know, one of my soft spots is counter-conventional wisdom. Here are a few recent ones in the health and nutrition and food spaces.

From Vox, the science is in: exercise won’t help you lose much weight. Count this (that exercise helps weight loss) among the many things I adamantly believed up until few years ago.

In this James Altucher podcast Dr. Aaron Carroll explores some of his book The Bad Food Bible: How and Why to Eat Sinfully. Quit looking for magic food. Quit worrying about toxic food. Eat what works for you. Stay away from processed foods and too much (i.e., added) sugar.

Slate explores the implications of the junk science used to ban smoking on grounds of secondhand dangers. I believe we are in an age of rising puritanism. Tobacco is the drug in the cross hairs. It is low brow. Interestingly alcohol and marijuana are higher and rising status. Once again, mood affiliation and out-group shaming guides public policy. (HT: Robin Hanson)

On a more upbeat note, here is a great guide to finding a restaurant. Lots here about correctly interpreting the signals being given--both intentional and unintentional. (HT: Tyler Cowen)

The Best Laid Plans

It is hard to stop planning--to go from preparing, which is safe and a bit fun, to actually doing. It can be hard to actually use stuff you've been keeping for that special occasion or rainy day. But that is why you were keeping it in the first place! 

Studying is ultimately about performance on the test. Practice is ultimately about playing in the game. Planning is ultimately about execution. Saving is deferred but eventual using.

In Evernote I have a note that serves as a brainstorm journal on blogposts I am planning to write but haven't yet. It is literally 19 pages long. Lack of time and a character flaw of perfectionism are my excuses for the procrastination.

Here is some good advice on converting planning into doing. 

Here is the case against 'just-in-case' items. 

Often we are not actually planning at all--we are just daydreaming. Daydreams can be ends in themselves, but their seductive allure can be destructive as they can be the antithesis of achievement. Daydreaming can be the first stage in the three-act progression (dream-plan-achieve). It can also be a fantasy world that doesn't and won't ever exist. Recognizing which one you are engaged in is vital to success. It is easy to confuse yourself in this regard and easier still to confuse those who are making their own plans around yours. 

My advice, which is for myself as much as anyone, is to not allow the 'someday I'd like to ...' daydreaming without honestly identifying if I am writing fiction or making plans. Ideally this would avoid the confusion of daydreaming as ends and daydreaming as means. Get busy living or get busy dying. There are enough real constraints preventing us from 'someday' being 'today'. Life doesn't need any help with roadblocks. Aspire to the end result, but admit that aspiration is just fruitless desire in the absence of actual progress. Plan to do.

Highly Linkable

First of all, it is settled--I will be inviting Alton to my Super Bowl party next year.

But I'm not inviting Adam because he ruins everything--in this case debunking 13 things that aren't true.

Carol Anne, they're out there.

Speaking of scary things, the news isn't so calming. I find Bryan Caplan's advice to be a sound counter to the tide of common opinion. 

The most I'll allow myself to speculate is that the supposed momentum issue in today's politics of a desire to look inwardly to protect what we have and regain what we've lost will be soon enough revealed as a chimera based on delusion. As Scott Sumner says, absolute poverty dwarfs relative discomfort as a material issue. (BTW, thanks again to Scott for his time in OKC and his nice comments at the bottom of that post).

If you want evidence of how phony the President's argument is and the unlikelihood of lasting "reforms" brought by his administration, look to this illustration of just one widget's journey through a supply chain that spans all of the NAFTA countries. (hat tip: David Henderson)

Alas, fear of Trump ruination continues to grip many. I recommend more advice from Bryan Caplan--embrace limited government!

Trump's own ruination appears more likely to me. I am just surprised by how fast it seems to be developing (perhaps this is wishful thinking). In fact I fear it will all be but wishful thinking that meaningful, good reforms will come from this Republican government. Perhaps Congress will be compelled to tell The Donald "You're Fired!" in short order and a President Pence can then be the signator to healthcare reform, corporate tax reform, and perhaps even major tax reform that can be bundled with climate change (externality) reform. It is amazing how simple and achievable these solutions can be--and accessible when presented by John Cochrane.

What I'm Listening To (Podcast Rundown)

Between my daily commute and my work travels, I get a lot of windshield time. That is all made a lot easier now that the world has podcasts. Here is my current subscription list in somewhat my listening preference order. Of course, length, topicality, and my personal mood make that order a moving target--so don't read too much into it.

Podcast	Comments
EconTalk	If you asked me for the most consistently rewarding podcast, this is where I would point you.
Freakonomics	If you were brand new to podcasts, this is where I would have you start.
MRUniversity	Bite-sized, very well crafted economics lessons. All are self recommending. Money Skills, Econ Duel, and Everyday Economics are perhaps my top recommendations for newcomers. Macro and Micro are excellent introductory courses.
Cato Daily Podcast	If you asked for the best briefing on political topics, this is the one I'd recommend.
Reason Video Podcast	Reason has their stuff together. From humorous, short parodies and commentaries to long-form interviews, this videocast is well worth it. Trigger warning, they often cover topics that will leave you mystified if not down right enraged.
Conversations with Tyler	He has a wonderful gift for getting deeply into a deep, impactful thinker's mind.
The Alton Browncast	Would we expect anything less than gold from the most entertaining chef in history? Terrifically it is generally not about food; although, it is often loaded with food.
Free Thoughts	If you wanted to seriously learn about libertarian thought, this would be the best podcast source. Even-toned, intelligent, and accessible.
The Way I Heard It with Mike Rowe	If you remember the best part of AM radio, you'll be instantly hooked on this one. If you can't, don't worry. You'll still be hooked.
The Libertarian Podcast	A well-reasoned, deeply educated, libertarian take on the issues of the day. I find myself in strong agreement 95% of the time. I listen to podcasts now at 2x speed. This one is usually the most difficult in that regard even though I know the topic well. Epstein talks and thinks FAST!
So you can probably pick one of these next three (Ferriss, Altucher, Manliness) finding the one whose style best fits your taste and get most of the same content since the guests tend to overlap so much. However, I find each rewarding in its own right.
The Tim Ferriss Show	I like how he has a life-hacking approach to, well, life and how he turns each guest into a teacher revealing the tools they have used for success.
The James Altucher Show	His style lends itself to an approachable format. The constant interruptions are a feature in that they provoke a more meaningful conversation.
The Art of Manliness	A pretty good way to check up on and improve upon your personal level of grit.
Macro Musings	Macro is the most controversial part of economics. It is perhaps not surprisingly also one of the most difficult to understand. David Beckworth does a splendid job illuminating the sources of controversy and reducing the confusion of the subject.
Penn's Sunday School	Entertaining first and foremost. I find his support for liberty and libertarianism a strong virtue despite my quibbles here and there with his delivery or details (in his defense he ALWAYS includes the disclaimer that he is "wrong, wrong, wrong!"). The atheism, which is arguably the point of the podcast, can be a good challenge to my own religious beliefs as well as a healthy way to learn from a convicted, intelligent advocate from the other side.
99% Invisible	Weekly they manage to make interesting the details about stuff all around us that we completely ignore.
Reply All	This one almost never fails to bring me new information. I have found quite a few of these episodes very surprisingly interesting--even after my expectations were elevated. The only negative is when it makes me feel old. I am basically always in the "No" category of "Yes, Yes, No".
Myths and Legends	Recommended by a Fribrarian. This one surprised me with how addictive it is. I swear I'm not this big of a nerd.
TEDTalks (hd)	I would guess I make it all the way through about one third of these with one third skipped altogether just based on the topic and description. The ones I do select make the subscription well worth it.
Revisionist History	Counter-conventional wisdom from a wise counter conventional.
50 Things That Made the Modern Economy	Tim Harford--so say no more. Dense vignettes about . . .  well, read the title.
Cato Event Podcast	Heavy on the wonk factor, but I like to go deep.
More or Less: Behind the Stats	Tim Harford, again. While the circumstances of specific cases in their numbers analyses are compelling, it is the ubiquitous principals at work where the real learning lies.
MinuteEarth	Almost always pretty interesting (and if not, it is only 1-3 minutes long), these, like their now podcast dormant forefather MinutePhysics (you can still get it on YouTube (hey, I need to do a post about what I'm watching on YouTube)), are how primary school science should be taught.
Economic Rockstar	This one gives me exposure to economists I wouldn't normally be exposed to (getting me outside my bubble).
Surprisingly Awesome	They take the mundane and show how it is actually not so bad and sometimes even quite amazing.
StartUp Podcast	Like the Serial podcast, there was significant drop off between season 1 and season 2, but I still found season 2 rewarding. Season 3 was a step up, and it has gotten better in season 4.
Tell Me Something I Don't Know	Since this one is directly about a common theme in most of my podcasts, it seems obvious that I would follow it. However, it is new. And while results so far have been rewarding, time will tell if it has staying power.
Science Vs	Overall, a good concept and good execution. The limits it runs into are symptomatic of the very premise--you can't let "what does the science say" run your life. It is not so simple. Science doesn't allow for normative claims.
The Moment with Brian Koppelman	These interviews are an interesting twist on the traditional 'talk to a famous or important person'. He is good at evoking the interviewees' source of their personal success.
StarTalk Radio	Another Fribrarian recommendation. Two things about this one make it a draw for me: 1) they cover an area of interest for which I am a only superficially well informed, and 2) they think about problems differently than do I which serves to expand my thought processes. The negative is when they venture into areas they do not know well; namely economics. They can be astonishingly poor at economic reasoning.
Heavyweight	This one has been hit and miss. The storytelling is compelling, but the content isn't always so.
Dan Carlin's Hardcore History	From a friend's recommendation. Haven't started it yet, but it looks promising. Episodes are looooonnnnggg.

Life Moves Pretty Fast

Life is complicated. Here is a partial list of some principles I use to help guide my reasoning and action. 

• Keep your options alive. Optionality is a very important and undervalued concept. And the corollary: Options are more valuable than plans.
• When in doubt, choose the upside. This does not mean be optimistic, although I am. This is about positioning oneself to be disproportionately exposed to upside potential. 
• Be optimistic. There will be another day. Things will get better than how they seem at their worst or when considered from the worst-case scenario. 
• Yield (choose 'flight') in the face of irrationality. Stand up (choose 'fight') in the face of injustice.
• Trust in market processes. And the corollary: Trust the signal the market is providing.
• There is enjoyment and learning in any and every situation.
• When in doubt, choose quality over quantity or efficiency.
• Don't by default attribute to malice what you could otherwise attribute to ignorance or bad luck. This one is adopted by recommendation of Tim Ferris (it is really just Hanlon's Razor), but I was already working with something very similar before I heard his version. My version goes: Don't assume ill intent; assume ill design or poor execution. People are much more likely to be stupid or unlucky than evil.
• Taken directly from Derek Sivers: If it is not "Hell Yeah!, then it is "No."
• Improve everything that you touch. Don't take my word for it. Dr. King said it much better. And the corollary: Be selective about what you engage in and be satisfied with reasonable improvements. Remember that perfectionism is a fault not a virtue.
• Specialize in your competitive advantages; seek to outsource everything else. Following this advice is the road to success. Don't take my word for it. Steve Martin is a better authority.
• Assume there is a good reason for things you find puzzling, but consider that improvements are possible.

...writing post title...quit check of email and facebook...back to post - 2016 Resolution Fulfillment

For the longest time I have held myself out as a master multitasker. Part of this was probably because being able to do more than one thing well at one time simply has to be superior to being only a unitasker. I share Alton Brown's loathing of unitaskers in the kitchen. [bonus points if you know the one unitasker he allows in the kitchen]

But I have had a volte–face: I now believe that multitasking is a bug rather than a feature. (I still share Alton's view regarding kitchen gear.)

My wandering mind is not the juggling Jedi I hold it out to be. Rather it is a bungling, distracted toddler that needs to concentrate for best results. As with all things of this nature it is a matter of degree along a spectrum rather than an absolute dichotomy. And to that end I have moved decisively from the position that multitasking is desirable (i.e., good performance at multiple tasks done in concert is possible) to the position that unitasking is desirable.

How well something can be done is directly proportional to how singularly it can be focused upon. Adding complexity is not an efficient way to use up slack resources (spare brain power, excess stress aptitude, extra time, etc.). It is simply a way to make the success in the original task less likely.

And of course there are TED Talks on the subject. The Instant Gratification Monkey will make you laugh as it indirectly touches on my position. This one really gets to the multitasking points about the 6 minute mark--so feel free to shop on Amazon while it plays in the background until that point.

Welcome Back

So it is, I return. Been away awhile. Way longer than desired, but I found my way back. The names have changed since I hung around. My dreams might have been my ticket out, but they remained and turned me around. I have come home.

No, dear reader, I don't mean this return to blogging; although it might equally apply. Rather the hiatus from blogging was largely driven by a return to where I live. Back around the time of the last post, we began searching in growing earnest for a destination home in Norman, OK. We found that home, just a couple blocks from campus and all the eclectic life that brings.

We always knew we'd make the move, but always found reasons to postpone. Until one day, we didn't. We let one thing lead to another and all of a sudden we stopped dreaming and started pursuing.

Financially we could have waited longer--way longer. We could have taken a stepping-stone path into a smaller place not quite so close and not quite so right. Remember that quote about playing it safe and letting life happen to you? I don't either.

“Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you didn’t do than by the ones you did. So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover.” – Mark Twain

Highly Linkable

Thank God they don't make 'em like they used to.

Watch this and be sure to watch the last "magic" point about a 52-card deck which starts at the 14:06 mark.

Tucker Max offers great advice on why he stopped (and you should stop or not start) angel investing.

This is not a top ten ranking for a university to aspire to.

Steve Landsburg brings his always valuable counter-conventional perspective to Serial: Season One. It is as hard for me to argue with his logic as it is to accept his conclusion. I believe he is right, but I also believe he has introduced an implied simplifying assumption(s) that ignores principles of justice and that may reduce or even reverse his conclusion. I think these principles could impact the model in both a practical sense (given the iterative and complex/diverse nature of the world of crime and punishment, including these principles might get us to better outcomes) and an ethical sense (it seems problematic to have low thresholds for high severity crimes). I might also quibble with his standard of proof and his philosophical position that a juror should be trying to reach a state of belief rather than my philosophical position that a juror should be trying to validate that the prosecution "undoubtedly" proved its case.

Let's look in on how the nation's first experiment with a $15 minimum wage is going--"Look Away . . . I'm Hideous!" Wonder how the guy who wants to take this model nationwide would react? And keep in mind Seattle's cost of living index is about +20% above the national average. How would this minimum wage sell in Peoria, Illinois, to name just one low-cost-of-living place?

Finally and while we're mentioning The Bern, don't miss Reason's take on Charles Koch's friendly letter to Bernie.

Highly Linkable

Let's begin with a few on immigration (I've been saving these; hence, the late dates on some):

Alex Tabarrok made the case for completely open borders in The Atlantic.

Bryan Caplan continues to fight the good fight. Here are some points he didn't have an opportunity to make at a workshop but did get to share with us, fortunately. And don't miss his speech at the Open Borders Meetup. 

Found this advice on idling cars in the cold helpful and attractively counterintuitive.

Let me take a moment to sing the praises of Comedy Central's "Drunk History". If you haven't watched it yet, start now before finishing this sentence . . . too late. I can think of three ways it is awesome:

1. It is a better way to learn history than traditional approaches because you remember and enjoy it; therefore, you stick with it longer. In that sense learning is a lot like exercise--the best method is the one you will stick with and the one that will stick with you. 
2. It tells stories that our traditional, state-driven history instruction won't tell. 
3. While it is uproariously hilarious to listen to the various drunk narrators describing history, it is also a pretty insightful take on history in a meta sense. Namely, history is vague and uncertain. We should be careful not to be too confident that we've got it figured out precisely.

Tyler Cowen's interview with Chris Asness is extremely rewarding. A few of the money quotes:

"There’s no investment process so good that there’s not a fee high enough that can’t make it bad."

"High frequency trading [which he doesn't engage in] has made the world more just and fair, particularly for small investors."

"This is not Lake Wobegon. We can’t all beat the index. It’s actually a precise mathematical identity."

On superheros: "Even the most insane billionaire cannot afford a hundredth of what frigging Tony Stark or Bruce Wayne have. It’s infuriating. ... I’ve done well. I’m not the most insane out there. But if I wanted to go build a Batcave at my house, it would take approximately 600 times my wealth, and everyone would know about it."

Speaking of rewarding, George Will always delivers as he does here on Michael Bloomberg's potential entry into the presidential election.

And lastly, Scott Sumner on economists who lack an imagination. (I agree in all four cases, and there is no contradiction between that and my other strongly held views.)