Saturday, January 19, 2019

'Oh, you left out a bunch of stuff' - 2018 New Year's Resolution fulfillment post

What better time to wake up from my no-blogging slumber than with the annual fulfillment of my perpetual New Year's resolution?

I used to strongly believe that “real-world” experience as a substitute for learning through formal study was over rated. There are two significant ways I have changed my mind. I now believe:

  1. Most learning done in school is learning in name alone. For the vast majority of people very little is truly understood and retained much less applied in life.
  2. Because of biases, failure to update/challenge conventional wisdom, poor feedback loops, and long cycles for knowledge updating, there is a chasm between the received wisdom and truth--what we could/should know but basically do not.

Bryan Caplan’s work as summarized in his book brought me around. This one has some irony. I probably shouldn’t be surprised that an esoteric, theoretical academic would be the one to set me free since my bias was built upon a disdain and rejection of those who (I still believe) unduly criticize and dismiss book/school learning and “theory”. I still highly value idealistic university education (at least in theory). I just now understand that experience in the world has much, much more value and applicability than I used to give it credit.

And it is not just that getting one's hands dirty learning by doing should be on equal footing. For most (see point #1 above) it is by far the primary way one should gain knowledge and wisdom and skills.

This change in view was for me a long time developing. As I remember it, the first major salvo came from Charles Murray when I read this piece. Caplan just pushed me from agnostic to full-blown evangelist.

Wednesday, May 23, 2018

Highly Linkable: Pay College Athletes Edition

With two important cases working their way through the courts (Jenkins v. NCAA and Alston v. NCAA), I continue to be optimistic that we are witnessing the beginning of the end for the government-protected, exploitative monopoly.

Just as Patrick Hruby explains in this Deadspin article, I have always found the argumentation along the lines "define specifically and prove explicitly how this change will work" to be shallow and weak. To argue that you lack the imagination to assume the market can devise a way to pay athletes, is no argument at all. As he concludes,
College athletes don’t need a pay-for-play plan, because pay-for-work isn’t a quantum leap. It’s just a small step in the direction of the world the rest of us already inhabit. The NCAA loves to talk about how college sports prepare players for The Game Of Life. There’s an easier and much more just way to do that.
As Ziggy might say, you'd have to have a Swiss cheese mind to not believe solutions will be discovered.

While we are on the topic of the ridiculous, Andy Schwarz takes apart the contention that most colleges couldn't afford to pay a market price for athletes.

But rest assured, Condoleezza Rice's commission fixed it all.

Sunday, May 20, 2018

Highly Linkable: Counter-Conventional Wisdom Edition

Trying to get back into the swing of blogging and just beating the 90-day hiatus limit . . .

Looking through my saved articles for future linking, I notice that just about all of them can be labeled "counter-conventional wisdom". Here are a few that, yes, have some age on them in the world of "that's so yesterday's Twitter", but I think they have value enough to be shared.

David Friedman, whose latest book is on my to read list, wrote about attending a Jewish wedding which got him thinking about what I would call modernity-biased myths about the past. I particularly like the Columbus myth.

You can't go very long discussing cryptocurrencies with a skeptic before they bring up the supposed Tulip Mania of 1600's Netherlands. But as I believe I've posted (or intended to) before, this is a myth. Hat tip to Tyler (of course).

I know I've posted before regarding our new puritanical age. I'm in good company with Matt Ridley who makes the case for today's "Millennials" being new Victorians. Yet again the young kids these days are not fitting their own (or the perennial young kids these days) stereotype.

This example of all common sources being wrong by Scott Sumner is a great example of a common view that unfortunately does not get scrutiny or challenge by the watchdogs or fact checkers.

Economics as a discipline itself needs more heresy (and reversals such that the heterodox becomes the orthodox). Arnold Kling, never shy to challenge along these lines, offers four contentions.

Sticking with Kling, he outlines five myths clouding health-care policy in the U.S.

Tuesday, February 20, 2018

Partial List: Twin Peaks - Wax & Wane

Partial list of peaks...

Some I predict we are in (or recently passed):
  • Garage, driver, and long-haul truck driver
  • Oil, et al. price
  • Professional stock picker
  • Bank (traditional) - regulation and innovation are to "blame"
  • Farm (agricultural land use) - see here & here
  • Storage unit

And some I predict we are not:
  • Local truck driver and this
  • Oil, et al. quantity
  • Index investing (true, pure passive even without the growth of factor-based, which is active)
  • Bond price - relatively low rates as far as the eye can see
  • Reality TV
  • Zoning - the Complacent Class isn't done yet "protecting" us from new ideas and FOOL is all about
  • Authenticity - the desire for this is just building and its continued strength is evidenced by the concern so many have that it is going away.

Sunday, February 18, 2018

What's Ahead for Stocks - precise predictions

Seriously?!? You clicked thinking you'd find some nonsense about, say, money about to [do something in regards to] "the sidelines", or perhaps you wanted to know how many technical indicators were crossing arbitrary thresholds. Oh, maybe it was an insider's take on smart money that you sought. But what would make the traders behind it "smart", how would I know what "they" (in unison? all on the same side of each trade?) were doing, and if I did, why would I share it?

Markets recalibrate constantly to new information. They also recalibrate constantly to changes in the weighted-average risk appetite of market participants. Did something change over the past couple of weeks? Of course, there is always something changing. But what?...

John Cochrane offers a great post for that question. Short answer: nobody knows. It cannot be known.

But what if we're in a bubble? Yeah, about that... Scott Sumner has two recent posts on that topic and more. He suggests we not be so sure about labeling past prices bubbles and lower the status of pessimists (I agree). He also suggests we should not offer explanations for events for which we are ignorant (I agree).

The standard advice is still the best advice:

  • Set your asset allocation as appropriate for best achieving your goals and personal constraints.
  • Get broad (very broad) diversification . . . cheaply.*
  • Go for lunch.
  • Check from time to time (not minute to minute) readjusting if needed to more appropriately fit your current goals.


*There are LOTS of investment options out there. The links show just two--albeit, two very good ones for achieving broad, cheap diversification. Also, maybe this.

Highly Linkable - How Are *We* Doing?

This links post is comprised of several items I believe are linked together in theme or subject matter. See what you think...

First Don Boudreaux points to a great website and corresponding TED talk by Anna Rosling Rönnlund. The project is a photographic-based exploration of how people compare. The within-country and among-country comparisons highlight what wealth and poverty look like. Notice the similarities, notice the differences, and notice on what factors these things do and do not seem to correlate.

Steven Pinker makes a strong case that The Enlightenment Is Working--"Don’t listen to the gloom-sayers. The world has improved by every measure of human flourishing over the past two centuries, and the progress continues." Let's suppose you conducted a survey every year for the past two centuries asking people simply, "Are you better off today than last year?" My guess would be the average and very typical response would be hard to distinguish from 'basically no improvement'. YET, the improvement over that time span for all of humanity (not just the average but for EVERY cohort) is dramatic and undeniable (once you look at the evidence). Why might this paradoxical result occur?...

Part II of Russ Robert's The Numbers Game is an examination of economic progress which suggests answers to the prior question above. The subtle yet very dramatic, counter-intuitive lesson, Simpson's Paradox, is awesome. To be sure, Simpson's Paradox would not answer my hypothetical, but it relates to how we misperceive small but compounding change and growth. Also, don't miss the first installment of Russ's video series.

But wait, aren't there too many people (or soon will be) for all this good news to continue? Steven Landsburg explores this issue in this video. He starts where everyone should start but often does not by asking "How would we know?" I believe he makes a very strong case that the answer is 'NO' we don't have and will not have "too many" people.

Tyler Cowen pointed to a couple of posts by Katja Grace who ponders 'Why did everything take so long?' The first and second both cover how and why progress is so difficult.

Sunday, February 4, 2018

My 12 Rules for Life

Jordan Peterson started this. Many have been following. I like Tyler Cowen's, Megan McArdle's, and Arnold Kling's among others.

Here is my contribution to the cause:

  1. Try more things--reach out for more variety along all relevant dimensions.
  2. Quit more things.
  3. Read more (quantity, quality, and variety). 
  4. Practice ‘Hell Yeah!’ Or ‘No’.
  5. Listen with intention. 
  6. Smile more. 
  7. Choose honesty, demand the same, and respect when you get it. 
  8. Pursue what is being rewarded but always to the satisfaction of high ethical standards. 
  9. Trust your gut instincts. 
  10. Ask your spouse, children, immediate boss, and parents for permission. For everyone else, ask forgiveness. 
  11. Change your mind. Distance yourself from those who won’t. 
  12. Forgive and move on.