Magnitude Matters

Getting cause and effect backwards. Often I hear investment pundits describe an effect as a cause giving them reason to be bullish or bear...

John Cochrane points us to a painting depicting the history of trade . We see the (symbolic) beef, but I'm left wondering where's th...

Which will come first? 50%-household penetration for driverless cars OR 50%-household penetration for 3D printers News about both...

Every day tens of millions of people now have an astonishing and remarkable ability to make use of the answer to that question in the subjec...

I am introducing a new theme on the blog: Which Will Come First (WWCF)? This could alternatively be called "Can you believe people used...

Re: The Great Stagnation I've been thinking about low-hanging fruit from changes in political economy. I mean this as a constructive g...

As an investment professional, I run into what I will term "the gambling analogy" a lot. Clients often use it, and in many cases i...