Magnitude Matters

Most people seem to think within the framework of a supposed "law of conservation of effort and reward" (LCER) and its corollary ...

Here is a partial list of some things people commonly get wrong (by my judgment at least) yet believe in them with strong conviction and des...

Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and ...

  As always, these are just in a general order of when during the year I catalogued them. Standard caveats apply--namely, an item learned do...

What is more important: what you think or how you think?  To what degree is it fair to hold people accountable for what they think. Cognitiv...

Admittedly I’m being too vague to be falsifiable, but set some agreeable terms, and I’m willing to bet (#MoneyWhereMyMouthIs #TaxOnBullshit)...

Partial list of things as they really are  ( these are not all original to me ) : Universities are hedge funds that run research labs and ha...

Considering the realm of points of view where thoughtful minds can disagree, we simply cannot have very much confidence that all of our view...

I have long been accused of being cynical, and while I will cop to it, I have always maintained that to the degree I am it is a good thing. ...

  Partial list of false extreme problems government should not be attempting to “solve”: Gender pay gaps Income inequality (rather than con...

I strive for epistemic humility, and my practice is to consider the confidence with which I hold various beliefs. As such I truly don't ...

The pandemic of the novel coronavirus (SARS-COV-2) is upon us. But rest assured; our fearless leaders are here to help  by making sure we ke...

With the unintentional help of Alex Tabarrok and Eric Helland , I fulfilled my annual New Year's Resolution to change my mind on someth...